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Syrians say world has failed them as Assad is welcomed back to the international stage

Every day, Riyad Avlar takes calls from mothers looking for their sons.

The co-founder of Association of Detainees and The Missing in Saydnaya Prison (ADMSP) knows what they are going through. He was a prisoner in Syria’s most notorious jail, called a “human slaughterhouse” by Amnesty International, which estimates that more than 13,000 people have been killed there since the Syrian revolution began in 2011.

Mr Avlar was “disappeared” with no official record of his arrest. His family spent years looking for him. There are thousands more like him, he says – which makes it hard to accept that their tormentor, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, is being welcomed back into the international community.

“The killing mechanism is still working,” says Mr Avlar. “Nothing has changed. Under these conditions, how can anyone normalise with this regime?”

The devastating earthquake that killed tens of thousands on both sides of the Turkish-Syrian border in February appears to have hastened Assad’s rehabilitation.

A flood of diplomatic visits from leaders across the region during the crisis led to talks to re-establish relations, and then reinstatement of Syria to the 22-nation Arab League after its expulsion following the regime’s brutal suppression of the uprising that led to an ongoing 12-year civil war.

DAMASCUS, SYRIA - APRIL 18: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY ??" MANDATORY CREDIT - "SAUDI ARABIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY / HANDOUT" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia meets Bashar al-Assad on April 18, 2023 in Damascus, Syria. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Damascus on Tuesday, for the first such visit to Syria in 12 years. (Photo by Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
President Assad meets Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on his first visit to Syria in 12 years, last month (Photo: Getty)

In that time, the regime and its allies Iran and Russia have presided over a deteriorating security and humanitarian crisis.

More than 350,000 people have been killed by conservative estimates. The economic cost of the war is believed to be more than £1trn. Most of the Syrian population have been displaced, fuelling a refugee crisis in the region and beyond.

Syria’s reinstatement to the Arab League met with fury from opposition groups.

“This decision shows an utter disregard for the immense sacrifices the Syrian people have made over the past 12 years in their fight against injustice, terrorism, and tyranny,” said the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces (SOC).

“Strengthening the authority of the Assad regime and its Iranian ally in Syria will inevitably lead to more brutality, terrorism, and bloodshed against the Syrian people.”

But the rehabilitation tour is ongoing. A mutual reopening of embassies with Saudi Arabia was announced this week. Syrian officials met with Turkish counterparts in Moscow the next day with a view to restoring ties that were largely severed.

FILE PHOTO: People inspect damage at a site hit by what activists said were barrel bombs dropped by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo's district of al-Sukari March 7, 2014. REUTERS/Hosam Katan/File Photo
Bomb damage in Aleppo. Much of Syria has been devastated by 12 years of war and more than half of the population has been displaced (Photo: Reuters)

The UK and US have dissented. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “The UK is very uncomfortable with Syria’s readmission to the Arab League,” adding that steps toward normalisation should be conditional on “fundamental changes of behaviour from the Assad regime”.

A battery of US, EU, and UK sanctions remain in place on the regime and its backers, along with UN Resolution 2254, calling for a ceasefire and “political transition”.

But many Syrian opponents of the regime believe the West has failed them, from former president’s Barack Obama’s failure to punish it for crossing a “red line” on chemical weapons use in 2013 onwards.

The Arab League decision is a reflection of waning US influence and leadership in the region, says Syrian-British journalist and political analyst Ghassan Ibrahim.

“The Arab states believe there is no hope the Americans will develop any policy to resolve the crisis in Syria… so they had to take the initiative,” he said.

Neighbouring states were determined to address the “black hole” in Syria, said Mr Ibrahim, that has led to a flood of security problems and refugees crossing their borders.

TOPSHOT - Residents retrieve an injured girl from the rubble of a collapsed building following an earthquake in the town of Jindayris, in the countryside of Syria's northwestern city of Afrin in the rebel-held part of Aleppo province, on February 6, 2023. - Hundreds have been reportedly killed in north Syria after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that originated in Turkey and was felt across neighbouring countries. (Photo by Rami al SAYED / AFP) (Photo by RAMI AL SAYED/AFP via Getty Images)
The devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria has hastened the normalisation of the Syrian regime (Photo: AFP/Getty)

One central issue is Syria’s emergence as a hub of the illegal drug trade, particularly the amphetamine Captagon, which is believed to be directing billions of pounds to the Assad regime.

While the US and collective West appear to lack a plan for Syria, Saudi Arabia may have one.

“The Saudis have a development vision for 2030,” said Mr Ibrahim, referring to the Kingdom’s ambitious programme to become a business and tourism destination while diversifying the economy from fossil fuels. “They want stability.”

That agenda has led to a surge of peace deals across the Middle East, as Riyadh normalised ties with Iran, then joined forces with its longtime enemy to broker a truce in Yemen, and is now driving the return of Syria from isolation.

Saudi money could bring some relief to the humanitarian crisis, the analyst suggests. But any hopes of ending the war are likely to be disappointed. Mr Avlar believes there is too much anger among the Syrian population to swallow any acceptance of a regime that has inflicted so much suffering.

“The struggle is for accountability,” he said. “There are many perpetrators who are still in their roles and we need to make cases against them.”

Riyad Avlar
Riyad Avlar was a prisoner in Syria’s most notorious jail, now he works to free others (Photo: Riyad Avlar)

Lawyers are pursuing regime officials in France and Germany, and efforts are ongoing to bring a case to the International Criminal Court, which recently issued an arrest warrant for Assad ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The SOC insists on a “complete political transition in Syria” with the regime leaders put on trial for war crimes.

The Assad regime has shown no interest in a compromise that might lay the groundwork for de-escalation of hostilities, ruling out negotiations with opposition forces and rejecting demands from neighbouring states, such as allowing international monitors and releasing political prisoners.

A further complication is that the regime does not control all of Syria, which is divided into a patchwork of territories held by Kurdish forces, the Turkish military, rebels, and Islamist militias. The areas held by President Assad are overseen by his more powerful patrons, Iran and Russia.

“We feel despair as a result of the rapprochement,” said Abdullah Kledo, head of Radio Fresh in the rebel-held North. “We have been exposed to this regime for a decade and we know it will not take any of the steps in UN Resolution 2254, firstly because it doesn’t want to and secondly because it doesn’t even have decision-making power.”

While frontlines have been largely static in recent months, fighting continues between factions, as a proxy war plays out between Iran and Israel, which escalated airstrikes that recently shut down Aleppo International Airport.

The fate of Kurdish-held areas remains uncertain as they are menaced by Turkish forces. Kurdish leaders have signalled openness to Assad’s normalisation in the hope a deal with Syria might offer some protection from Turkey.

Radio Fresh
Radio Fresh in rebel-held Idlib (Photo: Radio Fresh)

In a deteriorating situation, Syrians and analysts question the role of the Western coalition that still has forces in the country – ostensibly fighting Isis – but appears to wield little influence.

“The UK doesn’t have a Syria policy,” says Chris Doyle of the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU), suggesting the same applies to the US at a dangerous moment.

“No side can really afford to continue fighting but the conflict is continuing,” he said. “With the economy smashed, and people queueing for bread and fuel, there is a huge amount of anger… [and] at some stage, the Syrian regime will wish to reclaim those areas of the country not currently under its control.”

Mr Ibrahim suggests the West’s negligence could have consequences beyond Syria. Isis is regrouping and preparing to launch new attacks, he believes. The flow of refugees continues with little prospect of any returning home.

Assad’s normalisation would set a precedent that might encourage other international pariahs such as his ally President Putin to believe there is a path back from isolation, whatever their crimes.

As Mr Avlar continues his work to locate political prisoners in regime dungeons, he is concerned about the message normalisation sends.

“If they let him back in it is dangerous for the world,” he says. “It means any dictator is free to kill.”

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