Tories face ‘Red Wall’ blow as poll suggests Labour could topple Tees mayor

The Conservative Party could be set for a fresh blow to its “Red Wall” as new polling suggests Labour holds a comfortable lead over Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen ahead of May’s elections.

Mr Houchen, widely regarded as a poster boy of the Conservative’s “levelling up” agenda in the North, is standing for a third term as mayor in a contest which could send a strong message about the party’s prospects ahead of the general election.

Mr Houchen was re-elected in 2021 with a thumping majority of 73 per cent of the vote, after a narrow victory over Labour in the inaugural vote in 2017.

But polling carried out by Censuswide, and commissioned by communications agency Yasper, found that 45 per cent said they would be voting for Labour this time around.

Only 19 per cent said they would be voting for Mr Houchen.

The polling, carried out between 9 and 19 February, involved 1,001 voters across the five authorities of Tees Valley – Darlington, Hartlepool, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockon-on-Tees and Middlesbrough – of which 64 per cent said they intended to vote.

If such a result were replicated at the mayoral election it would see Labour winning in the kind of former heartland where the party was humbled in the 2019 general election.

Of Teesside’s seven constituencies, five are currently held by Conservative MPs.

But the gloomy mayoral polling for the Tories follows a major YouGov MRP poll in January, which suggested Labour would take would take all seven seats in Teesside en route for a 1997-style landslide.

With campaigning yet to hit full swing, it remains to be seen whether Tory unpopularity at a national level will translate into a defeat for candidates in May’s local elections.

The Censuswide poll also shows that a significant majority, 38 per cent of voters, believe he has done an effective job against 29 per cent who said he hadn’t and 33 per cent who said “don’t know”.

Mr Houchen credits himself with delivering on a number of eye-catching projects including bringing Teesside Airport back into public ownership, the regeneration of Teesside’s former steelworks into the country’s largest freeport, and the opening of a new Treasury campus in Darlington.

Such achievements have not been without controversy, however.

A government-commissioned report into the Teesworks Freeport published in January raised a catalogue of serious concerns about a lack of transparency and democratic oversight. However, the report found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing.

The Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove has asked Mr Houchen to report back with detailed responses to the 28 recommendations suggested into the report within six months.

More than 18 million people – around 34 per cent of the population in England – will be covered by eleven metro mayors following May’s election.

Combined with the mayor of London this accounts for 50 per cent of the population.

The Conservatives hold only two of the mayoralties, the West Midlands and Tees Valley.

Labour’s regional spokesperson said: “Not a single vote has been cast yet to elect a Tees Valley Mayor.

“[Candidate] Chris McEwan is taking nothing for granted and will be working hard for every single vote in this election, to give people in the Tees Valley a Mayor they can trust.”

Conservative candidate Ben Houchen told i: “I’ll continue to work hard, fight for local people and deliver the jobs and investment our area sorely needs and deserves.

“Local people can see the progress that’s being made, from our airport and freeport to the success of the Treasury locating a new office in Darlington. Our work over the past seven years has seen the employment rate in the region increase by 3.6%, which compares with 0.1% for the rest of the North East and 0.6% nationally over the same period, it has seen the establishment of the UK’s first, largest and most successful freeport and it’s seen record investment in transport infrastructure.

“I want to build a new hospital, get new flights for our airport and keep it flying. I want to continue creating good quality jobs for local people and keep securing the record levels of investment.

“Our plan is working and I hope I can continue to see the job through. I’ve never been a person who will leave things half done.”

Yasper describes itself as apolitical and is set to release a report titled The State of Devolution this weekend.