Tory election guru tells MPs to ignore catastrophic poll ‘timed to undermine Sunak’
The Conservatives‘ campaign chief has dismissed a poll which predicted the party would face a drubbing at the next election as “false” and “orchestrated” to “undermine” Rishi Sunak.
Isaac Levido told a meeting of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers those behind the survey appeared to be “throwing in the towel” and fighting the next party leadership battle rather than attempting to win the election.
Tory sources have also dismissed the survey, arguing it is actually the most favourable from YouGov for some time.
The polling of more than 14,000 adults and published in the Daily Telegraph revealed that the Conservatives are on course for a 1997-style wipeout, with nearly a dozen Cabinet members in line to lose their seats.
The so-called MRP survey was commissioned by former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost and funded by a little known group of Tory donors called the Conservative Britain Alliance.
An analysis of the data carried out by Lord Frost claimed the Tories would lose all of the Red Wall seats it gained in 2019 under Boris Johnson as a result of the re-emergence of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.
But Mr Levido told a meeting of the 1922 Committee on Monday night: “The idea that this poll and model is the most authoritative one published in the last five years is just false – it’s just another poll, another MRP models, with the same margins of error, the same statistical limitations as any other
“And you know your constituencies better than me, better than any media commentators and certainly better than any public pollsters.
“But the people who organised this poll and analysed and timed the release of it seem to be intent on undermining this Government and our party, and therefore the re-election prospects of every single one of you in this room
“They seem to be throwing in the towel, and are more interested in what happens after the election rather than fighting it – making the pathway narrower and steeper
“Let me be clear. Divided parties fail
“It’s time to get serious – I am still interested in fighting to win this election, and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe it was possible.
“People do not want Starmer. They are looking for excuses to vote for us. We must not give them any more reasons not to.”
Tory sources have also cast significant doubt on the analysis, with one senior party source pointing out that the 14 point Labour lead it showed was more favourable for the Tories than many previous YouGov polls.
“It’s actually the lowest Labour lead shown by YouGov for a very long time,” the source said. “Also, a lot of the seats it has Labour picking up are by 5 percentage points, so it’s very close.”
A senior backbencher accused Lord Frost of trying to use the poll to force Mr Sunak further to the right.
“It’s Lord Frost and it’s all shite,” the MP told i. “It has my seat as a Labour gain but when I go out on the doorstep I am just not seeing it. I’m not seeing it. This has all been timed to build up to the Rwanda vote. But when you speak to my constituents the thing they really care about is paying their bills.”
Reform Party sources also suggested the poll was an attempt to push the Prime Minister into toughening up policies due to the threat posed by its candidates in Tory seats.
In 2019 the party, then named The Brexit Party, stood aside in seats with Tory candidates to avoid splitting the right wing vote but it has refused to do so again in the upcoming election.
A party source described the YouGov poll as “music to our ears” but they dismissed any suggestion that Reform candidates would be pressured into standing aside again to avoid a Labour landslide.
“We gave them a chance in 2019, but… fool me twice,” the source said.
But in a further sign of the challenge the Tories face, the Liberal Democrats said any shift to the right would push voters further away in the southern Conservative heartlands.
“Aping Nigel Farage by tacking to the right on immigration will just further alienate One Nation Conservative voters in the Blue Wall, a Lib Dem source said.
“The endless squabbling and melodrama from Conservative MPs over their immoral and ineffective Rwanda policy is putting people off voting for them in swathes.”
