Tory MPs warn Badenoch she has a year to make gains or face being ousted

Kemi Badenoch is only 100 days into her job as Conservative leader but already some of her MPs are talking about putting a time limit on how long she will last.

So jittery has the party become after Reform UK surged in the polls, that Conservative MPs are already discussing at which point Badenoch may be forced to either make a pact with Nigel Farage’s party or step aside as leader.

Two Conservative MPs said separately that moment would come after elections to the Scottish Parliament and Senedd in Wales in May 2026.

“She’s got until the backend of 2026 to improve. If we do really badly in the Scottish and Welsh elections then she will be at serious risk,” one shadow minister told The i Paper.

“The locals this year are going to be a car crash,” another Tory MP said, referring to county council and mayoral elections this coming May, adding: “It’ll be May next year when things crystalise for her.”

A faltering start to her leadership and no breakthrough performances against Sir Keir Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions have led some of Badenoch’s colleagues to look over at Farage’s blanket coverage and question why she is not having the same impact.

And ex-Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has claimed Badenoch would only be in charge for a total of 18 months, also citing concerns over her performances over PMQs.

Davidson told Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast last week: “If she’s not getting the policy stuff right, if she can’t land a blow at [Prime Minister’s Questions] and she has struggled, if I’m honest, to land proper blows at PMQs… and if the party has no money for the remaining MPs… to think that they’re going to have the ability to fight and hold their seat at the next election, then I think she’s in trouble.”

Tories split over Badenoch’s leadership future

But other Conservatives reject the idea of changing leader again before the next general election in 2029.

“I think the idea that we can change [leader] again and be taken seriously ever again is absolutely for the birds. She’s there, and there’s nothing we can do about it. We’ve just got to stick with it,” a third Conservative MP told The i Paper.

A fourth Tory MP backed Badenoch, saying: “I still maintain that Kemi is super bright and really well organised.

“Her mind works in a way which I think is just perfect for this sort of complicated job. And I’m still a huge fan of hers.

“I think she’s got to get out there and win the media race in order to get our message out.

“The problem is, the media race is not like it used to be. Can you imagine a time say, 10 years ago, when a party with five people in it in Parliament will have more domination in the media than the Government and the opposition party? That’s the problem.”

A different media approach

The Tory leader’s team appears to be employing a new media strategy by favouring appearances on long-form, right-leaning media such as the TRIGGERnometry podcast co-hosted by Russian-British satirist Konstantin Kisin.

Reform UK firebrand Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, has also appeared on independent media programmes, The Peter McCormack Show and Dan Wootton Outspoken.

Politicians can put across a less filtered version of themselves during conversations on these platforms in a way they hope provides them with greater authenticity and appeal to the electorate.

This decision to move away from traditional media gatekeepers runs parallel to the approach of Donald Trump during the US election campaign during which the Republican appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience (5.7 total billion total views) and held an in-depth conversation with Elon Musk in one of his X platform’s “spaces”.

It also mirrors the strategy mastered by Canadian conservative Pierre Poilievre and is likely something Badenoch’s team hopes will help her reach a broader base and get her message out on her terms.

The battle for Scotland and Wales

Badenoch is grappling with a succession of poor polling data that has put Farage’s Reform UK in front of the Conservatives in voting intention.

A survey by trusted national opinion pollsters YouGov put Reform UK ahead of Labour and the Tories for the first time last week, piling more pressure on Badenoch to come up with a way to deal with the insurgent party.

One option could be for the Conservatives to make an electoral deal with their Parliamentary rivals.

But Farage has ruled out a pact with the Tories after speculation in the press over the weekend, saying: “After the betrayal post the 2019 election, we do not believe them to be honourable. Simple as that, so the answer is no.”

Speaking at a Farmers To Action event in north London, Farage added: “I think we’re the ones providing the challenge. We’re the ones out doing stuff every day. We may only have five MPs, but boy, they’re certainly being felt in Westminster, and the Labour Party doesn’t know what it is anymore.

“And frankly, today’s the 100th day of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership – it doesn’t stand for anything.”

Leading polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told this newspaper there was a chance Reform “might just manage to come first” in the Welsh Parliament elections next year in what would be a significant upset in Cardiff Bay.

And the party is even said to be making gains north of the border with some polls indicating it is on the verge of a breakthrough in Scottish politics.

Farage recently confirmed he would be fronting Reform’s campaign in Scotland in a move which signals the party believes he has the name recognition to cut through there.

Martyn Greene, Reform’s Scottish organiser, said: “Nigel will be fronting the campaign. He’s already looking forward to it. Against the likes of John Swinney, Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay, he’ll bring some excitement to what was previously looking to be a pretty dull campaign.”

But Prof Sir John is less convinced by Farage’s appeal to Scottish voters, telling the pro-independence Sunday National newspaper he was “not particularly popular”.

Badenoch’s Conservatives, however, still have work to do to win over voters in both Scotland and Wales.

A Welsh voting intention poll by YouGov last November put Reform neck and neck with Labour on 23 per cent, with Plaid Cymru topping the poll – one point ahead of both on 24 per cent – and the Tories trailing on 19 per cent.

And in a recent Find Out Now poll on voting intention for the next Scottish Parliament, conducted between 15-20 January 2025, the Tories were on 12 per cent, with Reform on 13 per cent, Labour on 19 per cent, the Lib Dems and Greens tied on 10 per cent, and the SNP on 31 per cent.

A spokesperson for the Conservative Party said: “From leading the opposition to Labour’s vindictive family farms tax, forcing them to amend their own Schools Bill and standing up for victims of the horrific rape gangs scandal by calling for a national inquiry, it is clear that the Conservative Party is under new leadership and already holding this disastrous government to account.

“Renewal is a long-term project and there will be bumps in the road with very difficult local elections in May, but Kemi has a mandate to renew our party from top to bottom to start to win back the trust of the British people after our historic defeat.

“Renewal is underway, the Conservatives are back in the service of the British people and we are fighting to give them their country back.”