Tory plotters promise Sunak a May ‘from hell’ as election bloodbath looms

In just over a month’s time the accuracy of Labour’s huge double-digit leads over the Tories will face their first big national test at the local elections on 2 May.

The results will not only provide an indication of parties’ actual ballot box strength and whether Sir Keir Starmer really is heading for No 10 with a healthy majority. They could also influence the timing of the general election and even who is prime minister going into it.

Conservative insiders are predicting a local elections “bloodbath” for Rishi Sunak which leadership rebels are promising will be followed by a “May Day from hell” in another bid to oust him from office.

Few believe the Prime Minister can manage anything other than a highly damaging hammering in the local votes for 2,600 seats across 107 councils.

The Conservatives are defending 989 seats from a high watermark in May 2021, when the so called “vaccine bounce” helped Boris Johnson add 200 seats and gain control of 13 councils.

This time round, Tory insiders are predicting up to 800 losses leaving the party on around 180 to 250 seats.

This may be expectation management given that renowned election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher believe the Tories will lose up to 500 councillors.

Either way, a senior Tory source admitted the party is “obviously going to struggle off an extremely high baseline”, and acknowledged it was on course for “several hundred” losses.

Some in the party spy a potential silver lining for Sunak if the party can hang on to the metro mayoralties held by Ben Houchen in Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Midlands.

“The key is Houchen and Street,” one Tory strategist said. “If they stay it helps with narrative and shows you can win.

“Street is huge, and he does have some reason to cheer – the Labour council is piss-poor and the Muslim vote may stay at home [in protest at the party’s stance on Gaza].”

However, others are more pessimistic, with one Red Wall MP saying the pair of mayors are “done for”. “It’s by no means unthinkable that they both lose,” the MP said. “They might have big profiles but you just need to look at the electoral maths.”

Others are optimistic the bankruptcy on the Labour-run Birmingham Council could help in the West Midlands, and that Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be punished in other ailing local authorities.

“May 2 will be very tricky,” a senior Tory MP said. “But, where Labour councils are doing very badly – that is, running out of money – actually they tend to get punished for it.

“That’s what happened in Croydon and in Harrow. In Enfield, although still run by the Labour Party, we made gains last time.

“So, it’s not a foregone conclusion. It’s not going to be good, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that it will be utterly disastrous either.”

A Red Wall Tory MP, meanwhile, suggested the Tories had a chance in post-industrial seats in the North and Midlands like theirs, but would struggle in the Blue Wall of wealthier southern seats where Liberal Democrats were the main opposition.

“If you look at the local council elections from last year, which were obviously a very bad set of results, it was less bad in Red Wall areas,” the MP said.

“There were glimmers of hope throughout that, but in the South we got absolutely wiped out. In certain areas, there is hope.

“I think we can get 250 seats. It’ll be touch and go in some areas, but I think we can get 250.”

A Conservative ex-minister said the mood on the doorstep was not one of despair. They said: “I don’t get the sense that there is a collapse in Tory support, it is more disgruntled voters staying away at the moment, although there is certainly a small uptick in former Tories and some Labour moving to Reform.”

But the dominant mood in the party was summed up by one Tory source who said simply: “I think it’s very likely it (the locals) will be a bloodbath.”

The looming disaster has triggered fresh speculation that Mr Sunak could face a leadership challenge, which even if he is likely to win, could prompt him to call an early general election in June.

Rebels are sharpening their knives, with one Tory source with knowledge of the plotters’ plans saying the leadership question has not been “closed at all” despite previous putsches petering out.

The source said Mr Sunak would face a “May Day from hell” to be followed by a “busy month” in the so-called “grid of shit” designed to destabilise his premiership.

They refused to rule out more MPs going public with letters of no confidence, insisting only that the rebels had “lots planned”.

Asked how Mr Sunak will be able to see off the threat, the source said: “There’s always resignation.”

One option the Prime Minister has been reported to be considering is a June general election in the aftermath of the 2 May polls.

But this was dismissed, if not ruled out, by a senior Tory source: “I think everyone needs to enjoy a long weekend and have a cold shower.

“We have been working on the assumption of October or November for over a year and not seen anything to suggest that’s changed.”

A No 10 source said it remained Mr Sunak’s “working assumption” to hold an election in “the second half of the year”, and dismissed reports that the Prime Minister was beginning to question himself and grow weary in office amid stubbornly poor opinion polls.

The source said: “I don’t think whoever said that has spent any time with him!”

The Tory strategist, meanwhile, believes Downing Street is briefing the possibility of an early election to make MPs think twice before joining attempts to oust Mr Sunak by instilling fear about a leadership vote too close to an election.

“It is wise for Sunak to hang the sword over the rebels,” the strategist said.

Meanwhile, MPs are sceptical that any leadership challenge will be successful, or even materialise in any meaningful form.

“[The local elections are] going to be bad no matter what. We can see that. I don’t think there’s any number, short of a total wipeout, that will see him (Mr Sunak) go.”

Another MP, meanwhile, urged rebels to back off: “The best way to stay here is not to plot against the Prime Minister, it is to work bloody hard over the next eight months.”

But another said morale among MPs had worsened after a poll put their party on 19 per cent, just four points ahead of Reform on 15 per cent.

The Prime Minister should acknowledge the threat from Richard Tice’s party in vulnerable seats and explain to backbenchers how he is going to tackle it, the former minister said.

And despite claims by some MPs that Mr Sunak is safe until after the 2 May local elections, the MP suggested that action could be taken against his leadership sooner, citing “a fair amount of disquiet about the progress of Reform and their potential to deprive Tories of seats”.

“The local elections are weeks away,” the ex-minister said. “There is a feeling amongst some MPs that more urgent action is needed.”