Tory rebels’ hit backfires but outlook bleak for unpopular Sunak

At the start of this week, Rishi Sunak looked in real danger. The bookmakers said he had a one in four chance of losing the Tory leadership, as rebel right-wingers were reported to be meeting over £26 bowls of ravioli to discuss their chances of toppling the Prime Minister and replacing him with Boris Johnson.

The overpriced pasta was apparently washed down with plenty of red wine. But no one seriously thought that the previous but one leader – who, after all, is no longer an MP – would come back. There was though a genuine prospect of Mr Sunak losing the first Commons vote on the Safety of Rwanda Bill, his favoured solution to having his plans for tackling illegal immigration blocked by the Supreme Court.

If he had been unable to win a vote on one of his flagship policies, serious questions over the Prime Minister’s future would have arisen. Some experts believe he is already lucky not to have faced a challenge. Chris Hopkins of polling firm Savanta said: “The only thing stopping the Tories from rolling the dice and going for a leadership election now is that so many of them are standing down.”

The would-be ringleaders of the Commons rebellion made themselves highly visible in the run-up to the vote. Mark Francois, head of the European Research Group (ERG), made multiple TV appearances as the head of the “five families” – five factions, broadly on the right of the party, who had agreed to co-ordinate a joint position.

Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates, backbenchers who founded the New Conservatives, made their own public interventions and were photographed leading their members to breakfast with the Prime Minister on the morning of the vote.

These efforts backfired. The five groups have at least 100 supporters between them on the Tory benches; but the number of MPs who followed Mr Francois’s advise to abstain on the vote was fewer than 30. And some of those were centrists aghast at the way the Rwanda bill suspends some human rights laws.

“Danny and Miriam’s behaviour has alienated a lot of people,” said one MP who had considered rebelling but ended up backing the Government. “It feels like they’re trying to establish some sort of leadership position.”

Mr Kruger is understood to have messaged the New Conservatives’ WhatsApp group the day after the vote, complaining that a majority of them defied his instruction to join the rebellion. “We’re supposed to be a pressure group, not a suicide bomb squad,” one member said. “It’s become like the Real IRA attacking the Provisional IRA.”

Veterans of previous, more successful Tory revolts poured scorn on Mr Francois’s decision to appear in two TV “pool” broadcasts this week to set out his group’s changing position – one source who helped organise Commons votes during the Boris Johnson era said: “You don’t do rebellions by constantly doing pool clips.”

There was also disquiet over the role of Suella Braverman, the divisive former home secretary who tried to push colleagues not merely to abstain but to vote against the Rwanda legislation – a move which would have threatened Mr Sunak’s majority more directly.

One MP on the right said: “There’s real unhappiness with Suella, a sense that she’s trying to rope us all in as supporters for a future leadership bid – but plenty of us wouldn’t back her.”

In fact, the dangers of the Prime Minister’s position helped rally support for his bill despite the ongoing disquiet over some of its details. A backbencher said: “If people had voted against we could have ended up bringing down the Government, and no one really wants that.”

Many Tories believe the threat is now over – given that even if every rebel MP votes against the legislation when it returns to the Commons next month, rather than abstaining, the vote will still go through. “My sense is that the hard right will eventually support the Rwanda bill as it is the only game in town,” a former minister said. “I can’t see the PM going to the country until he has secured passage of the bill and there is better economic news.”

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The centrist One Nation group – which largely did back Mr Sunak this week – felt empowered by the right-wingers’ lack of success and the fact the Prime Minister refused to budge on the legislation. One source close to the group said the fact the right blinked first could be down to anything from “recognition that the PM is in a difficult position to wanting to make sure they have Christmas off”.

But an MP in the group suggested the ERG and its allies were losing the influence they once had in the party. “They are clearly smaller than they once were,” they said. Sources suggested that, whilst Mr Sunak was “in a difficult position” with the proposed legislation, his only option was to “pursue the bill how it is and to stare down opposition”.

Not everyone is convinced. Defiant sources on the right of the party point to the fact that a number of those who backed the bill – including the likes of Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Liz Truss and Sir Michael Fabricant – have expressed significant reservations about its details and want it to be toughened up to ensure that it is successful in overcoming court challenges.

“We all want to win a fifth term but Rishi has been reminded this week he cannot do it without a large part of the party,” one right-winger told i. “He is now less popular than Boris. This wasn’t a failed rebellion – just a reminder to Rishi what he needs to do to win the next election.”

And even some supporters of Mr Sunak fear that the noisy episode shows the weakness of his position. “What No 10 didn’t really understand is it wasn’t all really about Rwanda – it was about No 10 and the whipping operation,” a source said. “MPs just wanted to be heard.”

The fact that Mr Johnson’s name is still the only one being floated as a possible replacement for the Prime Minister is a sign to some of how remote a challenge really is. Mr Hopkins of Savanta said: “Things might look a little bit better if Johnson had still been in charge, but that is forgetting that the Covid inquiry and Privileges Committee would have been more damaging if he were still in charge.”

Other pollsters warn Mr Sunak that even if his internal position is safe, there is little immediate prospect of improving his standing in the opinion polls. Keiran Pedley of Ipsos said that the Conservatives have no snappy election message to compare to Mr Johnson’s “get Brexit done” mantra, adding: “It is not very clear what you are asking for five more years of.”

Those MPs who have not yet totally given up hope of a shock election are urging an end to the drama – one “Red Wall” MP said: “The one thing that we really need to go right is the economy, things getting better and people actually starting to feel it in their pockets, because that hasn’t happened yet. And – though it doesn’t matter to everyone – sorting out immigration too.”

Mr Sunak’s inner circle agree. “We’ve tried to be magnanimous and show that we are listening,” a Government source said. The Prime Minister has spent recent days promoting his plans for education and the NHS, as well as hosting backbenchers for a party in Downing Street where – apart from joking that he would give Mr Francois a DVD of The Godfather in a dig at his mafia-style antics – the tone was said to be remarkably harmonious.

“People gorged themselves on the chocolates of rebellions and plots and drama,” a Government insider said. “Now it’s time for the main course of policy and getting things done.”