Why Trump could help boost Reform UK’s rise in Scotland
Labour, the Tories and SNP warned the US President will use his ‘megaphone’ to influence debate on the other side of the Atlantic
Donald Trump could boost Reform UK’s rise in Scotland by using his “megaphone” to influence Scottish voters, the traditional political parties have been warned.
The new US President may also have a major impact on the Scottish economy by imposing tariffs on key goods and shaking up the global energy sector.
Trump’s moves to scrap net zero policies, immigration crackdown and attacks on so-called “woke culture” could help Nigel Farage’s party north of the border, pollsters and political experts told The i Paper.
Some believe voters in Scotland may be particularly susceptible to anti-net zero arguments because of fears for jobs in the North Sea oil and gas industry.
The President, who owns two golf courses in Scotland, has already shown his willingness to wade into the political debate across the Atlantic.
Last month he called on the UK Government to “open up” to more oil and gas drilling off the north-east coast of Scotland and “get rid of windmills”.
Trump has promised to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord and vowed to “drill baby drill” during his inauguration speech.
While few expect Trump to shift either Scottish or UK Government policy, some think his rhetoric could help “amplify” Reform UK’s attacks on mainstream rivals.
Andy Maciver, the Scottish Conservatives’ former communications chief, believes Trump’s push against the orthodoxy on tackling climate change could be particularly helpful to Reform in Scotland – where oil and gas drilling is set to be a major issue at the Holyrood election in 2026.
“Trump is going to talk about drilling for fossil fuels and rolling back net zero. It makes it a lot of easier for Reform to say, ‘Net zero makes you poorer, we need to abandon all this stuff – look at what Trump is doing’.
“Trump may not have any deliberate strategy [to boost Reform], but the impact of his policies could very well do that,” added the Holyrood Sources podcast co-host. “He will be seen to be doing things that Reform are calling for.”
Farage’s party wants to scrap the UK Government target to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Reform claims that the policies which stem from it cost £30bn a year – though the figure is based on the party’s “own judgments and assessments”.
A recent report by Robert Gordon University (RGU) warned that failure to get the transition to net zero right could have a disproportionate impact on Scotland since tens of thousands of jobs in the offshore energy sector are at stake.
Reform support in Scotland stands at 13 per cent, according to a recent Survation poll. It would give Farage’s party 15 seats in the Scottish Parliament next year, according to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.
Fellow polling expert Mark Diffley said there was a clear overlap in support for the right-wing populism offered by Trump and Reform UK, with both claiming to be taking on the political establishment.
Diffley pointed to a November poll by Norstat showing that 25 per cent of Scottish voters would have backed Trump over Kamala Harris at the US election.
“If there is that level of support, that’s about double of where Reform are in Scotland,” said the founder of The Diffley Partnership consultancy.
“So it suggests there probably is room for Reform support to grow – particularly if he [Trump] is vocally involved in things affecting the [Scottish] election debate.”
Diffley added: “I would imagine for Reform, immigration and net zero will be key to their platform [in Scotland]. Trump has a huge megaphone. He is amplifying those issues that could benefit Reform.”
SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney faces a tough task in keeping the US president onside Trump considers the level of tariffs he wishes to impose on foreign imports.
Swinney suggested earlier this month he would try to “use” Trump’s personal connection to Scotland – his mother grew up on the Isle of Lewis – in a bid to avoid or ease tariffs on Scottish exports like whisky and salmon.
“The Scottish Government can try to appeal to his ego and affinity for Scotland, but Trump is very transactional,” said Dr Fraser McMillan, a Scottish elections expert at the University of Edinburgh.
“It’s more about avoiding disaster and avoiding antagonising him than anything else. I don’t envy any leaders trying to deal with him.”
Stephen Boyd, director of the IPPR Scotland think tank, said it was possible Trump could “try to influence the Scottish Government on oil and gas [drilling] in order to boost the prospect of US multinationals”.
But Boyd does not think SNP ministers would be “swayed” from policies aimed at achieving net zero emissions by 2045, which is slightly more ambitious than the UK Government’s 2050 target.
He also played down the prospect of Swinney being able to influence Trump on tariffs, since the nitty-gritty of trade negotiations will be down to Keir Starmer’s Government.
“It’s right for Scottish businesses to be genuinely worried,” said Boyd. “Even if he [Trump] doesn’t deliver the scale of tariff he was talking about during the campaign, they could hit things like whisky, salmon, textiles.”
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce has warned that the US market is “critical” to Scotland’s economy. It has called on the UK Government “to negotiate competitive trade terms and minimise tariff-related barriers” with the Trump administration.
Scotland’s Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes recently claimed that the uncertainty brought by Trump could see some renewable energy investors turn to Scotland in a move away from the US.
“It’s unwise to assume there will be a positive impact for Scotland, but there could be. Investors look at opportunities all over the world,” said Boyd.
The Scottish Government and Reform UK have been approached for comment.