Why could Trump spare the UK from trade tariffs? All of his claims, fact checked

The UK has avoided Donald Trump’s tariffs by relying on a statistical quirk during negotiations with the White House.

While Trump said that tariffs “might” be imposed on the UK, the European Union (EU) will “definitely” be taxed as trading with the bloc has left the US with a deficit of over $300bn (£242bn).

“The UK is out of line but … I think that one can be worked out. But the European Union, it’s an atrocity what they’ve done,” the US President said.

To avoid the tariffs, British officials have focused on US data during talks with the Trump administration showing that America benefits from a trade surplus with the UK, meaning it exports more than it imports.

Meanwhile, data from the UK Government paint an entirely different picture, showing that the UK exports more to the US than it imports.

Claim: Britain is ‘out of line’ on trade

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, America had a trade surplus of $14.5bn (£11.5bn) with the UK in 2023.

However, data from the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) show that the UK’s trade surplus with the US amounted to £67.3bn in 2023.

“The difference is significant – it’s a lot of money,” said L Alan Winters, Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex.

Professor Winters explained that the discrepancy in the data partly stems from difficulties in measuring services trade, such as working out exactly where services are produced by international firms.

US data shows that it exports $4.8bn (£4.8bn) more in services to Britain than it imports, but the UK claims to export almost £70bn more to America.

Downing Street said the UK’s trading relationship with the US is worth around £300bn, representing 18 per cent of total UK trade and “we are each other’s single largest investors” with £1.2trn invested in each other’s economies.

Verdict: It depends on which data set you are relying on

Claim: US exports more to UK than it imports

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said both countries use guidelines set out by the International Monetary Fund to estimate their surpluses and deficits.

However, implementing the guidelines “progressed at different speeds in the two countries leading to some definitional and methodological differences that contribute to trade asymmetries when estimating trade in services”.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis also includes the three Crown Dependencies – Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man – in its calculations, whereas the ONS does not.

“Using America’s own trade data provides a shared and strong foundation when engaging in discussions with our American friends,” a senior British official told The Financial Times.

While UK diplomats have relied on US data to avoid Trump’s tariffs, experts have warned that the US President’s unpredictability means there is no guarantee these will not be levies in the future.

“If tariffs are put on the EU but not the UK, it’s hardly a reason for the UK to celebrate,” said Andrew Gawthorpe, lecturer in History and International Relations at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands.

“The economies of Britain’s largest trading partners will suffer and there will be a general drag on global growth.

“And when you have a US president who is willing to put tariffs on allies over even minor policy disagreements, there is no guarantee that he won’t come for the UK eventually.”

Verdict: It depends on which data set you are relying on

Claim: UK won’t be affected by EU tariffs

Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, said that Brexit played a key role in avoiding Trump’s tariffs, but building closer relations with the US while Britain’s European partners are being taxed may not be in its best interests.

“Being out of the EU means that if the US imposes tariffs on the EU, the UK is not part of this,” he said. “This does not mean that the UK will not be targeted. The UK is likely to have a very delicate balancing act to play.

“There is a difference between the UK not being targeted by the US (for now), and the UK striking some deal with the US, while others are being targeted.

“The latter is likely to make UK’s relations with other countries much more difficult.

“In my view that would be a risky and inadvisable strategy.”

Andrew Lang, Professor of International Law and Global Governance at the University of Edinburgh, told The i Paper that it would be better for the UK to join a coalition of countries opposing Trump’s “arbitrary use of economic coercion”.

He said: “It is certainly plausible that the current US administration wishes to drive a further wedge between the UK and EU (or to avoid a significant reset which would strengthen the collective European voice), and may use tariffs to seek to do that.

“It does look at the moment as if the EU is a much more prominent target than the UK for punitive US tariffs, though this can also change quickly.

“On the other hand, for a medium-sized power such as the UK, others would suggest that the better long-term strategy could be to join a coalition of like-minded powers pushing against the arbitrary use of economic coercion in global affairs.

Verdict: False – Experts believe the UK economy will be hit by the indirect effects of White House policy

A Government spokesperson said: “The US is an indispensable ally and one of our closest trading partners, and we have a fair and balanced trading relationship which benefits both sides of the Atlantic.

“We look forward to working closely with President Trump to continue to build on UK-US trading relations for our economy, businesses and the British people.”