Why UK defence firms want to make more weapons for Britain… in Ukraine

As the British Government awaits the findings of its Strategic Defence Review, industry insiders, government officials and experts say that one thing is certain: a huge amount of British money is set to be spent in Ukraine. 

Naturally, the UK’s commitment of support to Ukraine through the Coalition of the Willing was expected to mean British taxpayer money would continue flowing to Kyiv. But what is expected next goes much further. As Britain and other European allies look beyond the war and at their own national security, insiders see Ukraine as a premier destination for the manufacturing of critical, modern equipment. 

The embattled country is on course to become a major hub for the UK and European defence industry. And the weapons Ukraine produced would not just be for its own war with Putin but for the wider defence needs of the European countries investing there.

More land and less regulation

In some ways putting crucial and very finite UK defence funding into country in such a precarious position might seem a very strange gamble to make. But there are number of contributory factors that add up to an inescapable logic for making the move.

Firstly, the process has already begun. The British effort to help Zelensky resist the Russian invasion means that our defence industry has already opened facilities in Ukraine.

BAE Systems, for example, is providing maintenance and repair for UK weapons supplied to the Ukrainian armed forces from a facility over there.

And the conditions in Ukraine that mean that a big expansion of capacity there is a very attractive proposition for British and European defence firms. There is more land in Ukraine to build factories, less restrictive regulation and more airspace to test new equipment.

The long conflict with Russia has also given it another crucial advantage, experts point out – a very experienced and willing workforce.

“The limited number of engineers in Britain might be more attracted to work in the technology sector, for example, than the defence industry,” says Sophy Antrobus, a research fellow at the Freeman Air and Space Institute.

But she notes that there is a generation of younger people in Ukraine who have lived through over three years of war who might be more motivated to work in the defence industry.

And it is not just their willingness to take on such jobs that could help British defence firms, it is their expertise.

Tapping into drone warfare expertise

Ukraine’s leading role in drone warfare is a case in point. The country has already become the world’s number one producer of tactical and strategic drones, manufacturing 2.2 million drones last year compared to 1.5 million from Russia, its much bigger neighbour and adversary. 

Putin’s invasion has resulted in a war where drones have become critical, as neither side “has been able to decisively control the air conventionally, with jets dropping bombs as we’d expect in a more traditional conflict,” says Antrobus.

“This means both sides have used a huge number of drones for a variety of purposes at a mass that would be impossible with sophisticated crewed or non-crewed combat aircraft. Some with warheads attached, some as kamikaze drones, some just to create confusion for air defence systems”.

As the war has progressed, the extensive use of a variety of drones – ranging from surveillance and attack drones to single use kamikaze drones – by both Ukraine and Russia has changed tactics on the ground.

“The sheer volume of drones in the air and relatively static frontlines has made it much harder to manoeuvre and fight,” says Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute. “What you see now is great numbers of surveillance drones going up paired with attack drones – or drones that can do both – which makes moving personnel, equipment, medical supplies and even food to and from your frontline more difficult.”

How war is speeding up the evolution of technology

So Ukraine has had to evolve its technology incredibly quickly to ensure that its drone warfare remains effective and can adapt quickly to realities on the battlefield.

Sir Keir Starmer proudly announced the RAF’s new British made “cutting edge” StormShroud drones on Friday. But defence experts point out that the development time for such technology is much slower in the UK than it has had to be in Ukraine.

“Some kit only lasts a matter of days in a war,” says a senior European defence industry insider. “It either gets overtaken by new technology or your enemy works out how to take it out of action.

“In Ukraine, the average test and evaluation of something like a drone can be a couple of weeks; in the UK it can be a couple of months.”

The fleetness of foot exhibited by Ukraine’s booming drone industry is an understandably appealing prospect to the defence firms here and in Europe where lead times have become so much longer.

Making kit ‘considerably cheaper’

There is also a cost factor to consider. Not only can equipment like drones be made more cheaply in Ukraine, but Britain is likely to continue to donating equipment to Ukraine’s frontlines for years to come.

Even if a ceasefire were agreed tomorrow, industry sources say, the need to make millions of drones a year – along with other equipment – will not go away. “Making kit in Ukraine would make getting it to their frontlines considerably cheaper,” says a British industry insider.

Making Ukraine a major UK defence manufacturing hub does have some potential political difficulties. Higher defence spending for a post Trump world is likely to mean that existing defence jobs in the UK will not be threatened. However the idea of using cheaper Ukrainian labour and expertise instead of British jobs for an expansion well not necessarily be the easiest sell at home.

NATO desire to integrate Ukraine into supply chain

But from a strategic point of view, NATO officials see it as being in the alliance’s interest to fully integrate Ukraine into the defence supply chain. Aside from it being a cost-effective way to produce huge amounts of equipment that will be in demand across Europe, it could also serve as a deterrent to the Kremlin. “Vladimir Putin might think a little more carefully about striking infrastructure in Ukraine if there are British or French workers in a factory, or some kind of NATO presence protecting a facility,” says a European defence source.

Companies like BAE systems, the British defence giant, and Rheinmetall – Germany’s largest arms manufacturer – have a head start with agreements already in place with Kyiv.

And while industry insiders cannot go into detail about their plans for Ukraine, it is widely known that the industry in general is actively seeking to expand operations inside the country.

Security officials, experts and people in the defence industry expect this trend to grow. Some even see it as a way to get the attention of Donald Trump, who they believe might be more interested in defending Ukraine if he can see a clear economic incentive to do so.

Drones would be the first obvious focus, given Ukraine’s success at manufacturing and using them. But drone warfare, effective as it is, has not replaced the need for bigger-ticket items like cruise missiles. European allies – including Britain – are also aiming to ramp up production of conventional ammunition over the next five years, and Ukraine could also play a significant role here. It is not inconceivable that countries’ factories will be part of the wider supply chain as Europe refills its depleted stockpiles and begins to rearm.