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Sir Keir Starmer is on track to be the new prime minister with a landslide victory of 410 seats and a majority of 170, according to the general election exit poll.

The Tories are facing their worst defeat ever after 14 years in government, with the party crunched to just 131 MPs – the lowest number of Tory MPs in post-war history.

This is what the country could look like, according to the exit poll:

If the exit poll stands true, Starmer’s Labour Party will have control of the House of Commons with a staggering majority close to Tony Blair’s in 1997.

The Liberal Democrats have come off well in the final prediction, becoming the third largest party once again with a leap to 61 MPs.

Reform has split the right-wing vote and could win far more seats than expected, with a predicted 13.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) came off badly in the exit poll, falling from 48 to 10 seats. The party appears to have been punished following a tumultuous period with a police investigation into its finances.

The exit poll also forecasts the Green Party on two seats and Plaid Cymru in Wales on four.

The exit poll is the final test of public opinion, published at 10pm on election night, and it has laid bare the scale of devastation the Tories face.

It is the most accurate prediction of results before all the ballot papers are counted. It is calculated by intercepting voters just after they have voted and asking them to complete a mock ballot paper in over 130 polling stations across Britain.

The statistics are then crunched by polling experts including John Curtice.

Biggest Tory defeat in history

The Tories are facing a record defeat, according to an exit poll predicting a Labour landslide.

In 2019, the Conservative Party was led to victory by former leader Boris Johnson with 365 seats and a majority of 80.

Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson called the predicted election result a “massacre” for the Conservative Party after exit polls were released.

Rishi Sunak has sought to outwardly portray himself as upbeat, only arguing on Wednesday – the final day of campaigning – he was an “underdog” who was fighting until the “final whistle”.

But the exit poll has suggested that the party will be obliterated, with several prominent Cabinet ministers at risk of losing their seats.

Those most at risk are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan.

Godalming and Ash, the constituency Mr Hunt is contesting, is 81 per cent likely to go to the Lib Dems, while Mr Shapps is set to lose his Welwyn Hatfield seat to Labour with a 94 per cent likelihood.

Justice Secretary Mr Chalk is all but certain to lose his Cheltenham constituency to the Lib Dems, though Ms Keegan’s Chichester seat is a possible Conservative hold, with an 85 per cent likelihood.

Portsmouth North, where Labour is challenging Ms Mordaunt, is too close to call according to the pollsters.

It has also been reported that Sunak is privately worried about losing his Richmond and Northallerton constituency, though according to the exit poll he is 99 per cent likely to win.

Labour landslide

If the exit poll stands true, Starmer’s Labour Party will have control of the House of Commons with a staggering majority close to Tony Blair’s in 1997.

Blair’s Labour won 418 seats in 1997 – a 179-seat majority – meaning predictions that the party would outdo the 1997 landslide appear inflated.

Starmer’s Labour victory would stop short of the so-called “supermajority” that Rishi Sunak has been warning about and that was predicted by several different polling companies in their MRP mega-polls.

But the party is heading for a landslide all the same and Starmer has thanked those who voted for him and “put their trust in a changed Labour Party”.

Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner said she thinks voters are punishing the Conservatives for the past 14 years after the exit poll.

“To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party – thank you,” he posted to X, formerly Twitter.

She told Sky News: “Keir has done a tremendous job in transforming the Labour Party and putting forward a programme for government that the country can get behind and after 14 years of the chaos and the scandals and the decline we have seen under Tories I think they are getting punished for that – that’s pretty clear in the polls as well.”

Reform makes unexpected surge

Reform UK is poised to win 13 seats in a significant electoral breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s insurgent party.

If the exit poll rings true, Mr Farage is on course to become an MP in Clacton-on-Sea for the first time, on his eighth attempt.

The party, which was only formed in 2018, currently only has one MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Conservatives.

It would be the first time Reform have managed to secure an MP at the ballot box.

i‘s reporter David Parsley, who is at the count in Clacton, said Nigel Farage and his Reform UK colleagues are already in high spirits at a party on the seafront.

The private party was already packed with those attending expressing confidence that the celebrations will go on well into the night.

One attendee said: “It’s been a fantastic campaign and Nigel’s time has come. This is going to be a great night for him and Reform. This is the beginning of something special.”

If tonight’s exit poll is correct there it may well be a big night. The poll gives Reform 13 seats, way ahead of expectations.

Lib Dems back as a ‘major force’

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said his party was “on course for our best results in a century” after the exit poll.

The party is predicted to return 61 MPs which would top former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s 57.

The party is seeking to make holes in the so-called “Blue Wall”, which refers to Conservative-held areas in the south or east of England that voted Remain and have a higher-than-average proportion of graduates. 

Key to their success are Cheltenham and North East Hampshire. But top of Mr Davey’s wish-list is to usurp Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash. If successful, he would become the first serving chancellor in history to be unseated on election night.

Tough night for the SNP

In Scotland, the SNP are expected to secure 10 seats – falling dramatically from the 48 seats won in 2019.

SNP campaign director Stewart Hosie described the prediction as “stark” but added that it was “just an exit poll”.

“In the next few hours, we’ll see how accurate or otherwise it is,” he told the PA news agency.

Asked what such a result could mean for the SNP, Mr Hosie said he was not concerned.

Reacting to the exit poll, Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon told ITV: “This is not a good night for the SNP on those numbers.”

She added: “This is at the grimmer end of the expectations for the SNP if the exit poll is right.”

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