UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say
Donald Trump winning the US election would intensify the need for the UK to seek a closer relationship with the EU, senior Conservatives pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal have said.
Sir David Lidington, formerly Theresa May’s de facto deputy prime minister, told i that the presidential candidate is adopting an increasingly “aggressive” approach to his “America first” policy that will increase pressure on the UK to boost ties with other close allies.
The ex-Cabinet minister also argued that it would be a “strategic mistake” for the Tories to define themselves against Sir Keir Starmer’s drive for a softer Brexit deal while backing some of Labour’s policies, including a new veterinary agreement with the EU to ease cross-border trade.
Mr Lidington and Tory MP Stephen Hammond’s Conservative European Forum (CEF) also called for a number of other measures, including supporting the movement of workers into the EU, aligning with Brussels in some foreign and defence policy and striking a deal to ease burdens on musicians and other artists touring Europe.
It is based on interviews with more than 40 companies, business leaders and experts – including the CBI, the National Farmers Union, British Chambers of Commerce, and the Institute of Directors – on how to boost growth and trade.
Their report backed Labour’s calls to seek to improve the hard Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by Boris Johnosn when it is up for review in 2025/26 and represents a resurgence in a debate in the Tory Party which had largely been won by Leavers since 2019.
Mr Lidington explained that Rishi Sunak’s Windsor Framework deal on Northern Ireland restored trust with European partners, and showed the Tories were now in a “calmer place” on Brexit and more willing to “take a hard-headed approach and could be willing to sacrifice some notional sovereignty in return for things that were in our national economic interest”.
In addition, the Ukraine war “shook people in London and throughout Europe” into realising cooperation is more important than the minutiae of trade arrangements, while Brexit hardliners on both sides were no longer the main political players, Lidington said as he explained why he was reopening the debate in the party.
“The people who were at the fore in the very painful and at times acrimonious negotiations have moved on.
“Boris Johnson has left Parliament, Michel Barnier is no longer in the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has replaced Jean Claude Juncker, it’s just that sense of a different cast of people taking a fresh look.”
Mr Lidington also warned the Tories against opposing Starmer’s push for closer EU ties if, as expected, Labour wins the next election, stressing that opinion polls suggest the public regard Brexit as harmful and that a large proportion of Tory voters – around a fifth in 2019 – supported Remain.
“It would be a strategic mistake for the Conservative Party to try and define itself as the Brexit party by another name, not least because nobody is seriously thinking that rejoining the EU is on the cards in the foreseeable future,” he said.
Both Mr Lidington and Mr Hammond said global instability also increased the need for a closer EU relationship.
Asked if a Trump presidency would strengthen the argument for closer ties with the EU, Mr Lidington said: “Yes it would.”
He continued: “Everybody will hope that a Trump presidency would still enable deep cooperation to continue and certainly you will hear, not just from Rishi but pretty much every European leader, a determination to work with whoever the American people elect, and that has to be right for European democratic leaders as an attitude to take.
“But Donald Trump has already spoken more aggressively about the need to put American interests first, he’s certainly spoken about Nato and the Article 5 guarantee in ways that would cause European political and defence leaders to have worries, and it seems to me we should hope for the best but prepare in case of the worst on this.
“Even if the American guarantee to Nato and Article 5 remains absolutely solid, I think it’s still the case that their focus is increasingly on China and the Indo-Pacific, less on Europe and Africa, and therefore I think the Americans would expect he Europeans not just to pay more for defence, which I think is perfectly acceptable, but to accept greater leadership.”
