Ukraine’s suicide sea drones attack marks new phase of war with Russia
Ukraine’s audacious destruction of a Russian missile ship with a squadron of explosive-packed “suicide” marine drones marks an evolution in capabilities and the early stages of a new assault on Crimea, military analysts believe.
Dramatic video footage published by the Ukrainian army on Thursday appeared to show a series of strikes against the warship in the western waters of the occupied peninsula. The ship was sunk, according to Ukraine and Russian military bloggers.
The attacks mark the latest successful deployment of marine drones by Ukraine, which have been developed into potent weapons over the course of the war.
Ukraine has made extensive use of the experimental weapons, having produced several canoe-shaped iterations including the “Toloka” and the “Marichka”, said to be around six metres long with a range of 600 miles. New versions of the crafts have the capability to fire seaborne missiles, which Ukraine has also developed over the course of the war, as well as crash into enemy ships.
Marine drones have been used for several of Ukraine’s most spectacular strikes of the war, including an attack on Crimea Bridge last July, and a long-range strike on a Russian warship in the port of Novorossiysk the following month.
The latest attack appeared to show advanced co-ordination between the drones and precision targeting, a sign of rapid progress, according to Mykola Bielieskov, an adviser to Ukraine’s military leadership at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
“For me it is a good proof of both technology and tactics maturation,” he told i. “Someday, these weapons will be almost autonomous in terms of command.”
Ukraine’s marine drones are neutralising the naval advantages Russia enjoys through its Black Sea Fleet, said Dr Kristian Gustafson, professor of intelligence and security studies at Brunel University in London.
“What Ukraine has done is leverage their advantages to dislocate or displace the Russian fleet from where it poses a threat,” he said. “The Black Sea Fleet retains a lot of combat power, but can’t do a lot without exposing itself to disproportionate loss.
“Those advantages are in largely home-grown innovation in maritime surface or semi-submersible drones, married to highly responsive intelligence from their own systems and their European and American allies.”
The Black Sea Fleet is crucial for Russia’s ability to launch missiles, said Dr Gustafson, but is increasingly unable to operate safely from any location.
“And to achieve this, the Ukrainians expose very little for the Russians to strike back at — it’s a classic asymmetric strategy from Ukraine, and it is costing Russia significantly in time, lives and treasure,” he added.
The strikes are also thought to be part of a new assault on Crimea, which has become a Russian military stronghold since annexation in 2014. Ukraine has conducted a series of attacks around the occupied peninsula with a focus on air defence systems, including the rare A-50 command and control aircraft used to detect missile launches.
Ukraine also claimed an attack on the Belbek airfield in Crimea this week.
“The campaign to target Russian military infrastructure in temporary occupied Crimea continues,” said Mr Bielieskov.
