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Will Ukraine join Nato? Alliance cautious about membership bid that could plunge West into war with Russia

Nato has stood firmly behind Ukraine over the past 15 months as the country has fought back against Russia’s full-scale invasion, with allies providing guns, rockets, tanks and intelligence.

However, Ukraine’s long-standing bid to join Nato is a trickier proposition for the alliance, which this week offered its strongest support for membership without setting any firm timeline.

Speaking on Thursday at the end of a two-day meeting of foreign ministers in the Norwegian capital, Oslo, Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, suggested that Kyiv’s destiny was with the alliance.

“All allies agree that the Nato door remains open, that it is only for allies and Ukraine to make decisions on membership, and that Russia does not have a veto,” he said.

“All allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of Nato. And all agree that the most important thing now is that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign and independent state.”

Nato’s eastern European members are keenest for Kyiv to join as soon as possible, arguing that Ukraine’s battlefield prowess effectively makes it the front line for the West.

But some Western members are more cautious, noting that Ukraine’s bid to join was specifically cited by Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to justify his invasion.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a media conference after the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Norway, Thursday, June 1, 2023. NATO on Thursday ramped up pressure on member nation Turkey to drop its objections to Sweden's membership as the military organization seeks to deal with the issue by the time U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts meet next month. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)
The Nato secretary-general suggested that Kyiv’s future is in the alliance (Photo: Sergei Grits/AP)

Membership also creates a difficult logistical issue: Nato’s Article 5 collective security guarantee deems an attack on one to be an attack on all, meaning that if Ukraine joins in the current conditions, it would immediately set the alliance at war with Russia.

Nonetheless, Kyiv’s bid received an unexpected boost on Wednesday when French President, Emmanuel Macron, called for Ukraine to be granted “a path towards membership”.

Speaking at a security conference in the Slovakian capital, Bratislava, he also called for “strong and tangible” security guarantees for Ukraine ahead of a key Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July.

Mr Macron said Kyiv should be given security guarantees, not only because it is “protecting Europe” but also because it is “so well-equipped”.

Mr Macron evoked an arrangement along the lines of the US backing for Israel with “strong, concrete and tangible security guarantees” so its allies can go further than their current commitment.

“We have to build something between Israel-style security guarantees and fully-fledged membership,” he said.

The gesture is seen as particularly significant since France and Germany blocked Washington’s attempt to grant Ukraine a road map to Nato accession in 2008 and instead suggested that Kyiv could join at some unspecified point in the future.

Now, the main block to Ukraine’s membership campaign is likely to come from the US, according to Bruno Lété, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think-tank German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“The Republicans are putting pressure on the administration to ease down efforts for Ukraine, which means the US will not approve this before the elections next year,” he said.

Mr Macron’s shift is seen as part of his diplomatic push to dispel suspicions in eastern European countries that France is an unreliable ally. However, Mr Macron said he wants eastern European countries to be part of the wider security on the continent, which is one of the reasons why he pushed for the creation of the European Political Community, holding its second summit in Moldova on Thursday.

But the Israel security pledge may be the wrong model for Ukraine, warns Ian Bond, a director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

“There are two problems,” he said. “One is cost – Israel has spent 10 per cent of its GDP on defence since the mid-1960s, and it’s hard to see how that is sustainable for Ukraine. The second is that Israel is a nuclear power, albeit undeclared, and no-one wants that for Ukraine.”

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