How the Ukraine war could end — in four maps

Talks over ending the war in Ukraine are faltering, with the US Vice-President, JD Vance, warning that America will walk away unless Moscow and Kyiv agree a deal.

The comments, which echo previous statements from the US President, Donald Trump, come after the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided to skip a summit aimed at negotiating a ceasefire.

Rubio’s absence is the latest blow to the US-brokered peace process, which has so far failed to bear fruit.

Territory is the primary stumbling block, as Russia still controls large swathes of Ukrainian land and has so far been unwilling to release it.

It is not clear what terms that Russia would accept to end the war, with conflicting reports of the Kremlin’s position.

What are the possible outcomes for Ukrainian land – and which is most likely?

Russia hands over all territory

In the “best-case scenario for Ukraine”, Vladimir Putin would hand over all over territory illegally seized in both the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion, Dr Marnie Howlett, lecturer in Russian and East European Politics at the University of Oxford, said.

However, if and when Russia and Ukraine agree on a peace deal, this outcome is deemed highly unlikely.

“Putin has shown no real indication that he wants to end the war, nor give back the land Russia currently occupies,” she said.

Neil Melvin, head of international security at the defence think-tank the Royal United Services Institute, said there was “practically zero possibility of that happening” at present because the Kremlin felt it was in a strong position.

“They’ve been on the offensive for nearly a year, with the Ukrainians defending, so I don’t think Russia feels under any pressure to cede territory that they’re already occupying,” he said.

Putin keeps Crimea but cedes everything else

Though it had been deemed unlikely by analysts, some reports suggest Putin is willing to relinquish the territory it is occupying – in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – in return for recognition of Crimea as Russian.

This was the “initial hope” and the position Ukraine’s allies have maintained. However, according to Dr Melvin, this is also seems unlikely under current circumstances.

“After the failed Ukrainian counter offensive in 2023, its very hard to see why Russia would cede those territories, through military pressure anyway,” Melvin said.

Alex Petric, senior analyst on the Eurasia team at intelligence company Janes, said that Russia is “very unlikely to relinquish its claims to area of four partly occupied regions that remain under Kyiv’s control”.

“Notably, on 23 April, Putin chaired an Official Meeting of Military Industrial Commission, where he spoke for seven minutes about new weapons supplied to frontlines. He talked about scaling up of weapons production, he added, weapons systems are being modernised daily,” Petric said.

“He praised the military industrial complex, testers, training ground personnel, others. This indicates that Russia does not feel the need to stop at existing battle lines.”

Petric said that any relinquishing of Russia’s claim to the entirety of the four Ukrainian regions would also counter Russia’s newly accepted constitution, which Kremlin will almost certainly not want to accept, “as this would discredit Putin in the eyes of the Russian population.”

“We have not observed in the Russian media environment or political statements any signs that such U-turn would be likely,” he said.

War ends on current battle lines

Other reports indicate the war is set to end along the existing battlelines.

According to a report from the Financial Times, the Russian President told the US that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of the four annexed regions that remain under Ukrainian control.

In this case, Russia would keep the large swathes of four key parts of Ukraine that it currently occupies, but not the entirety of these regions. Moscow would also gain formal recognition of Crimea.

In return, Ukraine would regain control of a handful of small areas.

“If there is to be a ceasefire, that seems to be where things would start,” Dr Melvin said of this scenario.

“The conflict would be essentially frozen along the current lines of contact, although there have been suggestions that there would be a couple of areas that Russia may be willing to open up to Ukraine having a role.

“One is the mouth of the Dnipro river which is very important for Ukraine’s ability to export its grain to reach the Black Sea, so that would be something of value. But these are quite small territories. Another strategic issue is what would happen to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. “Reports suggest some compromise may come under US control.”

But Dr Melvin warned that this would be unlikely to satisfy Russia for long.

“The difficulty is that Russia still has very large territorial ambitions which go beyond its current territory so though it may settle for some sort of ceasefire, there’s still a sense that Russia wants more land in Ukraine,” he said.

“Certainly the full scope of the four regions that it has recognised in its constitution as being part of Russia now. There’s talk in Russia of a much bigger idea – “Novorossiya”, the New Russia project – which goes far beyond these four regions and includes things like Odesa, the city in the south. This is where we get into the feeling that this is not really negotiating for peace but just to prepare for bigger demands in the future.”

Kremlin takes all territory it sees as Russian

In the worst-case scenario for Kyiv, Ukraine would lose all territory Russia has tried to claim – including the areas of those four key regions which Ukrainian troops currently control.

This is considered intolerable for the Ukrainian government – and not as easy to push through as Trump might hope.

“It’s already going to be a very bitter concession to accept that the US would recognise Crimea as part of Russia, even if Ukraine won’t do that, and de facto Russian recognition of the occupied territories. If they then had to cede land Ukraine currently holds, that would be politically very difficult,” Dr Melvin said.

“Constitutionally in Ukraine, neither the government or the parliament can actually give away territory; that requires a referendum. There can’t be a referendum currently because of martial law. So they’d have to start a process to end martial law, which would open up the question of whether they have to have elections which are also stopped, and then to have a referendum.

“Having suffered so much, we don’t know whether the population would be willing to swallow further territorial concessions. That politically may be a very difficult thing to do.”

He added: “Trump imagined that you can find a solution very quickly among a few people, but there are other processes which need to be taken into account.”

Howlett said that this scenario was “illegal and unfeasible”, and that Ukraine would be unlikely to lay down arms even if this was agreed.

However, Petric said this was the most likely of all four scenarios.

“Russia very likely intends to achieve control of the territories of four regions that it hasn’t yet occupied through one of three ways: military means, diplomatic means if Zelensky’s government would agree to retreat” or by exploiting a chaotic transfer of power from Zelensky to the next Ukrainian leader.