US may be delaying weapons deal to privately pressure Israel

President Joe Biden appears to be exerting private pressure on Israel over Gaza, analysts believe, as his administration reportedly delayed the sale of thousands of precision weapons to the country.

The move prompted questions about whether this is a deliberate ploy amid growing anger over the devastating war in the enclave.

The Wall Street Journal said although the White House has publicly resisted calls to limit weapons sales to Israel, the sale of up to 6,500 joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) worth as much as $260m has not progressed since the start of the year.

Congress is said to have learned from the State Department of the weapons deal in January but this was never followed up with an official notification, so the deal has effectively been paused.

Dr Jonny Hall, fellow in US Foreign Policy Analysis at the London School Of Economics, said it “certainly looks like a deliberate delay for all intents and purposes, given that the administration could be driving for this deal to get approval in Congress”.

He told i: “Noticeably, the Biden administration has been very quiet on the deal since January, which I think is indicative of the politics here and how the Biden administration’s stance has shifted since then.”

This could be down to factors such as domestic political controversy, reaction to Israel’s actions, or the US’s reputational costs by standing directly with Israel, he said.

Pro-Palestinian protests have erupted at 130 university campuses across the US, with demonstrators demanding the institutions sever ties with firms linked to Israel. A poll at the end of March revealed approval for Israel’s military action in Gaza among Americans had dropped from 50 per cent to 36 per cent.

The issue has divided the Democratic Party, with 57 Democrats in Congress asking Mr Biden to withhold aid to Israel to stop a planned assault in Rafah.

Dr Hall said: “I think the Biden administration’s position generally reflects an attempt to balance these competing forces: Israel’s response has clearly gone beyond what members of the Biden administration would deem acceptable, so providing more missiles at this time is only likely to increase the already very vocal criticism of the government.”

“On the other hand,” he added, “publicly cancelling a deal would obviously alienate those who believe that the US should be providing strong levels of support to a long-standing ally in Israel.”

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He said politically it makes sense for the Biden administration to “put this on the backburner and try and use this as a tool to modify the Israeli position in private”.

“This strikes me as a better alternative for the Biden administration than making any weapons a public issue right now, given the polarisation on the issue in the US including within the Democratic party,” he added.

Whether this will work remains unclear.

“I think Israel’s actions in the last 24 hours speak to the slim chances of that being the case,” said Dr Hall.

Hamas said it would accept an Egyptian-Qatari mediated ceasefire proposal on Monday night but Israel insisted the deal did not meet its core demands.

Hours later on Tuesday, an Israeli tank brigade seized control of Gaza‘s vital Rafah border crossing.

Dr Raphael Cohen, political scientist at the Rand corporation, said: “The Biden administration is under significant and growing pressure from the progressive flank of the Democratic party to avoid a large scale operation in Rafah and more broadly, get Israel to end its war in Gaza.

“Holding up weapons deliveries – which has been reported but to the best of knowledge not confirmed – is one source of leverage, but certainly not the only one.”

He said the Biden administration had had some success at getting the Israelis to change their policies, from rolling back some of its bombing campaign to opening border crossing points in northern Gaza.

“As for whether this move will stop Israel from expanding its Rafah operation, I’m less convinced,” he added.

Mr Netanyahu is under pressure to fulfil his promise of destroying Hamas, he said, and Rafah is believed to be where Hamas senior leaders are hiding out, and smuggling weaponry into Israel.

Seth Binder, of the Washington-based Middle East Democracy Centre, told the Wall Street Journal that if the arms deal delay was deliberate it would be “the first instance since this war began where the administration took such an action on weapons we know have been used in Gaza”.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby would not comment on Monday on whether arms sales to Israel had been put on hold.

He described US security commitments to Israel as “iron-clad”.

But it is apparently not the first weapons deal to have been stalled. Another $1bn deal for Israel, including including tank ammunition, military vehicles and mortar rounds, is also reported to have not progressed since March to congressional notification stage.

Joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) are guidance kits which convert unguided bombs into precision-guided munitions.

Developed by Boeing for the US Air Force and Navy, they bolt on to bombs to make them near-precision “smart” air-to-surface weapons. The tail kit contains an inertial navigation system (INS) and a GPS guidance control unit.

Once released, the fins guide the bomb as far as 15 miles to the designated target.

The apparent delay comes as Mr Biden is facing growing unrest at home over US support for Israel in a presidential election year.

Last week, US senator Bernie Sanders warned the crisis in Gaza could be Mr Biden’s “Vietnam” referencing President Lyndon B. Johnson’s decision not to run for reelection as the nation was in an uproar over his support of that war.

Police have been called in to remove some encampments, such as the one at New York’s Columbia University, with more than 2,000 students arrested across the states.