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Putin is ‘sensing weakness in the West’ after nuclear threat, say experts

BRUSSELS – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons against Nato are “deeply worrying”, but appear aimed at intimidation rather than warning of an imminent risk, according to experts.

Mr Putin on Wednesday said that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or independence is threatened and boasted that its nuclear arsenal was “much more” advanced than that of the United States. It was the latest of his many nuclear warnings since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In his state-of-the-nation address last month, he said further Western involvement in the conflict would risk nuclear war.

Patricia Lewis, who heads Chatham House’s International Security Programme, says that while the threats are chilling, they are not having the desired effect on the West. “Putin’s clearly trying to frighten us, but the West has not been spooked – and that’s a good thing,” she told i. “But the idea that you would use nuclear weapons just seems bonkers for people. You know he’s not going to do anything so stupid.”

Mr Putin has repeatedly invoked the taboo of nuclear weapon use since 2022, but Dr Lewis says he is trying to break Western resolve, particularly after French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that Nato troops could be sent to support Ukraine’s military.

“Putin is perhaps sensing the weakness or uncertainty in the West about the outcome, and the lack of enthusiasm as time goes on. He thinks he can outwait the West, he thinks they’ve got a limited attention span, that they’ll get distracted by the next thing, which might be Gaza now,” she said.

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal with just under 6,000 nuclear weapons, and can launch its nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, submarines or planes.

At the start of his invasion of Ukraine, Mr Putin ordered his military to put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, and in September 2022, said he was prepared to use nuclear weapons as he warned the West: “I’m not bluffing.”

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Mr Putin threatened him with a missile strike in a phone call in the run-up to the invasion, telling him it “would only take a minute”.

British officials have said there are no signs Russia is preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in or around Ukraine despite the recent bellicose statements. But the intimidation has had its effects, with Germany’s Space Command chief, Major General Michael Traut, warning last month about the danger of a nuclear weapon detonation in orbit by Russia, and tech billionaire Elon Musk pulling back satellite support for Ukraine, citing nuclear risks.

Florian Eblenkamp, an advocacy officer at the Geneva-based International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, said that even though the nuclear threats have been empty so far, they are still alarming.

“I think it’s safe to say that the risk of nuclear use has certainly gone up since 2022,” he said. “It’s hard to quantify that, of course, but even 1 per cent risk is unacceptable – and it’s deeply worrying that the nuclear option remains on the table.”

Andrey Baklitskiy, senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, said Mr Putin’s nuclear threats were often issued when Ukraine’s Western allies were debating sending weapons to Kyiv.

“We have seen him issue red lines but these have been quite fluid,” he said. “So Russia said there should be no heavy weaponry, no missile systems, no fighter jets, no tanks, and so forth. All this has been supplied, but none of it triggered any big response on the Russian side.”

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