Why Trump wants Gaza – and why his plan won’t work

Israeli hawks had been growing concerned over the direction of the second Trump administration.

First, his team forced a ceasefire in Gaza over the protestations of the settler right that had nurtured hopes of a permanent occupation. The president then opened the door to diplomacy with Iran as Israeli hardliners clamoured for joint military strikes against Tehran.

But Trump allayed those fears and then some in a series of pronouncements alongside a beaming Benjamin Netanyahu last night that took a chainsaw to the precepts of seemingly antiquated texts such as the “Peace Process” and the Geneva Convention.

“Donald, this looks like the beginning of a beautiful friendship,” posted Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s former national security minister, who resigned in protest over the ceasefire deal, as Trump promised a purge of the population of Gaza, and threw in a favourable nod towards recognising Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank.

Why does Trump want Gaza?

The pledge to depopulate Gaza and take it under American ownership marks a stunning turn for US policy, but it is also consistent with the president’s approach to foreign affairs, and a long history of Palestinian dispossession.

Trump had reportedly developed his position in Gaza only in the days leading up to the fateful summit with Netanyahu, and it appeared to harden in a series of public assurances that Jordan and Egypt would accommodate potentially millions of Palestinian refugees – despite the flat refusals of those countries and the Palestinians themselves.

Expansionist America

For Trump, Gaza is just the latest territory he has set his sights on, following Canada, Greenland, and the Panama canal inside the first month of this second term.

His second term has so far been marked by an emphasis on expansionism – often citing national security concerns – perhaps with an eye on the actions of other strongman-style leaders such as the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Turkish leader Reccep Tayyip Erdogan – in stark contrast to the isolationist doctrine of America First.

Lucrative property deals

For a real estate veteran with an eye for a deal, the devastated enclave with a Mediterranean coast location appears to resemble an attractive distressed asset, a prime candidate for a bankruptcy-style takeover that would see Trump-branded property replace beleaguered refugee camps.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, another property tycoon who served as the president’s Middle east envoy during his first term, is said to have been influential in shaping the plan. Kushner noted last year that “waterfront property could be very valuable” in Gaza, and added “I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”

Sympathies with the Israeli far-right

The move also fits with another of Trump’s recurring patterns – giving Israel’s hard right what they want. During his first term, with pro-Israel ideologues David Friedman and Jason Greenblatt among his top team, Trump broke with longstanding US policy to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to recognise Israeli sovreignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, and shuttered the Palestinian consulate in Washington.

Removing the Palestinian population is a long-cherished fantasy of Israel’s ultranationalists and supporters, dating back to before Meir Kahane’s influential 1982 book They Must Go.

Throughout the war in Gaza, Kahanism has gone mainstream in Israel, with Israeli ministers advocating the removal of the Palestinian population.

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, wrote an article with MP Ram Ben-Barak promoting “relocation,” which suggested: “Even if countries took in as few as 10,000 people each, it would help alleviate the crisis.” Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, described this as “the correct humanitarian solution.”

Israel’s settler movement, which now includes a large, influential presence in government, has strongly advocated reclaiming sovereignty over Gaza under the slogan “Occupy. Deport. Settle.”

Even Israeli centrists appeared to welcome Trump’s plan, which opposition leader Benny Gantz described as “creative, original and interesting thinking.”

Why Trump’s suggestion is unlikely to work

While some pundits have mocked Trump’s pronouncements, suggesting it is as unlikely to be implemented as many of the president’s other suggestions – such as a “Star Wars” missile shield or peace in Ukraine on “day one” of his term – they have been taken more seriously by Palestinians.

“The feelings I have while listening to this are just wrath and pain,” said Abubaker Abed, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, in reaction to the White House press conference.

“I shivered listening to the president pushing ethnic cleansing in cold blood,” posted Shibley Telhami, a US-Palestinian university professor.

Palestinians will not leave Gaza

Palestinian reactions are conditioned by a history of dispossession, from the 700,000 refugees who were displaced during Israel’s foundation to the spread of settlements across the West Bank that are expanding into Palestinian land at record speed, according to the UN and watchdog groups.

The population of Gaza has already been reduced by about 10 per cent during the war, with 150,000 having fled or been killed.

Palestinian pundit Jalal Abu Khater archly noted that the majority of the strip’s population were previously displaced from what is now Israel or the West Bank and suggested they would welcome a return.

“Hey Donald, Great idea. Seventy per cent of the population inside the devastated Gaza Strip are actually refugees who would happily return to their homes in Majdal Asqalan, Jaffa, Jerusalem, Bir Al-Sabe, and everywhere else in between,” he said, using the Arabic names for Israeli cities.

Palestinians might also put their faith in the president failing to follow through on a commitment as he has many times before, and their own concept of “Sumud” – steadfastness – that has endured through previous crises.

The plan violates international law

Trump’s suggestion would violate the Geneva Convention. Rule 129 of the Convention prohibits the forced displacement of civilians during armed conflict.

The Democratic Senator Rashida Tlaib has condemned the plan as “ethnic cleansing”. “Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. This president can only spew this fanatical bullshit because of bipartisan support in Congress for funding genocide and ethnic cleansing. It’s time for my two-state solution colleagues to speak up.”

The Arab world would not allow it

Saudi Arabia responded with a sharp statement at 4am local time rejecting any “infringement on the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people” and contradicting Trump’s claim that it would normalise relations with Israel without a path to Palestinian statehood.

Jordan and Egypt, both of which border Gaza and who have been cited by Trump as among those he would expect to take any displaced Gazans, have also voiced their total opposition to the plan.

Jordan’s foreign minister has said the kingdom is “firm and unwavering” in its rejection of displacing Palestinians.

Egypt’s foreign ministry has said it will reject the request, “whether through settlement or annexation of land, or by evicting Palestinians from their land through displacement or encouraging the relocation or uprooting of Palestinians from their land, whether temporarily or long-term”.

Over two million Palestinians refugees already live in Jordan, while thousands have fled to Egypt since the beginning of the Gaza war. Neither country would be able to cope with another influx of over two million more people from Gaza.

Analysts also point to resistance from other important US allies in the Gulf, including the UAE and Qatar, as major roadblocks.

“No resolution on Gaza will happen without Arab consent,” said former Pentagon Middle East adviser Jasmine El-Gamal. “The Arab state, particularly the Gulf states, have a lot more leverage than people give them credit for.”

But the real damage of Trump’s diktat may be its potential to further normalise dangerous extremism and render the prospect of a real solution to the conflict even more unlikely, suggested Israeli journalist Haggai Matar.

“What Trump has done is bolster the mainstreaming of Kahanism, pushing us further away from what has to happen: prolonging ceasefire, releasing hostages and prisoners, rebuilding Gaza and Israel, and an agreement based on liberation and justice for Palestinians,” he said.