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Winter fuel cut could cost Labour at polls in 25 marginal seats

Nearly 400,000 pensioners in Labour’s most marginal seats will lose their winter fuel payment, new figures seen by i reveal, suggesting Sir Keir Starmer faces an electoral battle over the controversial cut.

The 25 constituencies where the Prime Minister is hanging on to a majority of fewer than 1,000 votes have a higher proportion of older people who will lose their £200-£300 allowance than those in Labour’s safest seats.

A total of 399,152 pensioners in those marginal seats will miss out, or an average of 15,966 older people per constituency, according to the analysis of official data.

By contrast, in Labour’s 25 safest seats, where Starmer has a majority of more than 16,000, the total number of pensioners who will lose the payment is far lower, at 284,842 or an average of 11,394 per seat.

The analysis shows how the row over Rachel Reeves’ decision to axe the winter fuel payment for all but the poorest pensioners risks eating into Labour’s 174-strong majority at the next election in 2029.

The data also reveals that more pensioners are to lose the benefit in Conservative seats than in Labour constituencies, which could fuel Tory concerns that the move is politically motivated.

Labour are traditionally more likely to represent areas with a higher proportion of people on lower incomes, including pensioners entitled to pension credit, who are therefore still eligible for the winter fuel payment.

Meanwhile Conservative seats are more likely to be in areas with higher numbers of wealthier pensioners, who will no longer be able to receive the winter fuel allowance.

But Starmer’s election landslide in July saw many Tory seats turn Labour, and analysis of official data reveals the extent of pensioner voters in those marginal seats, which could switch back to the Conservatives in 2029, particularly if anger lasts over the cut.

In Labour’s three most marginal seats, where the Tories are in second place, the majority is wafer thin and far outnumbered by pensioners losing their benefit.

New MP David Pinto-Duschinsky in Hendon, north London, has a majority of just 15 but 11,052 pensioners in the constituency will lose the winter fuel payment.

Neil Duncan-Jordan, who was first elected for Poole in July with a majority of just 18, has 19,217 pensioners in his seat who are facing the cut. Mr Duncan-Jordan tabled the Commons motion calling for a delay to the decision and abstained in Tuesday’s vote on the payment.

Sam Carling, in North West Cambridgeshire, has a majority of 39 votes but 15,445 pensioners, who will lose the winter fuel payment.

In 24 out of Labour’s 25 safest seats, the number of pensioners who will no longer receive the allowance is smaller than Starmer’s majority.

These seats tend to be in lower income areas where there are proportionately more pensioners receiving pension credit.

Out of all 650 seats in the Commons, 13 of the top 20 seats with the highest numbers of elderly people missing out on the allowance are Conservative, five are Lib Dem, one is Reform – in leader Nigel Farage’s seat of Clacton – and one is Labour.

But in the 20 seats with the fewest number of pensioners losing the allowance, 19 are Labour with just one independent, in Jeremy Corbyn’s seat of Islington North.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta said: “The reason why Labour’s majority is so large, despite a relatively small share of the vote, is that they delivered the right types of voters, in the right places.

“Contrary to recent electoral misses for Labour, in July this meant often older former Conservative voters switching to Starmer’s party.

“But that sizable majority inevitably means there are now more marginal constituencies that aren’t historical areas of strength for Labour.

“This now presents a risk: they contain the voters most impacted by the scrapping of winter fuel payments, in places where smaller swings away from Labour would lose them the seat.

“Starmer and Reeves can’t be oblivious to this risk. They’re attempting to get the ‘tough choices’ out the way as early as possible in an attempt to build economic trust with the electorate, and hope that the short-term anger is offset by longer-term benefits before the next election.

“But I think they also hope they’re going to get credit for genuinely addressing one of the major issues in this country – namely a vast inequality in resources used and hoarded by relatively well-off pensioners, versus younger, working-age adults.”

What is the winter fuel payment row about?

Millions of pensioners are set to be stripped of their winter fuel allowance this year after Parliament voted in favour of the Government’s plan to scrap the payments for all but the poorest pensioners.

The winter fuel allowance is an annual tax-free payment worth between £200 and £300 which is designed to help pensioners cover their heating bills.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in July that the payment would be scrapped for all pensioners except those in receipt of pension credit or other means-tested benefits, such as universal credit and income-based jobseeker’s allowance.

The announcement sparked a backlash from MPs – both Labour and Conservative – and voters.

But the Chancellor is standing behind it and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer survived a backbench rebellion this week after the Conservatives put forward an opposition motion to block the Government’s plan.

While a majority of 120 MPs voted against the motion in support of Labour’s policy, 228 voted in favour of it, including Labour MP Jon Trickett, who stressed that the “consequences of pensioner poverty are devastating” and could be a “matter of life and death” for his constituents.

Five Labour MPs who lost the whip after opposing the Government’s two-child benefit cap earlier this year also supported the Conservative motion. These included Apsana Begum, Zarah Sultana, John McDonnell, Ian Byrne and Richard Burgon.

More than 50 Labour MPs did not take part in the vote, including seven ministers, but it is not clear how many deliberately abstained or were absent from Parliament for unrelated reasons.

Kyriakos Petrakos

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