Tory moderates hit back as civil war brews

A storm is brewing in Conservative ranks as Rishi Sunak attempts to plot a course through warring factions and even Cabinet ministers on immigration and asylum.

This week was dominated by calls from Tory right-wingers for the toughest possible action to save the Rwanda deportation deal and to dramatically reduce record net migration, with MPs appearing to get the tacit backing of Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick.

But it has triggered its own backlash from Tory moderates, who are now warning the Prime Minister not to bend to the Right’s calls for the most hardline action – whether it is overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in emergency laws to save the Rwanda deal, or to dramatically curb legal immigration.

One senior Tory MP says such demands, which have been accompanied with rhetoric about pro-immigration “globalists”, “bourgeois liberals” and dire warnings about threats to democracy, risk dragging the party towards the positions of the far-right embodied by Donald Trump, Netherlands politician Geert Wilders and Argentine president-elect Javier Milei.

“You only have to look around,” one said. “People are wondering if we’re next.”

They cheered the appointment of Home Secretary James Cleverly, who has cautioned against quitting the ECHR due to the potential impact international cooperation, and more than 20 One Nation Tories have written to Mr Sunak to say they will not support attempting to override the Strasbourg court in upcoming Rwanda emergency laws.

“Hopefully we can now have calm, rational solutions,” the MP said.

A second senior MP said colleagues in the “Red Wall” who back tough measures “have to realise they don’t have to just respond to what’s in their mailbox”, insisting constituents calling for the toughest possible measures represent a minority.

The Tories need to “lead opinion not follow it”, they said.

The MP also expressed concerns about the party lurching to the right after likely election defeat, fearing it could end up like Canada’s Conservatives, who have spent eight years in the wilderness since losing in 2015.

“It was four years of madness then another four years where it was sort of OK before they got back into contention,” the MP added.

Some in Downing Street are questioning the motives of MPs calling for Mr Sunak to override human rights laws in a bid to get Rwanda deportation flights up and running by the next election, after the scheme was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court.

A No 10 source said: “Tory MPs just want to leave the ECHR, they don’t care about stopping the boats.”

However, a third moderate Tory MP warned the party must address the migration issue, while echoing Mr Cleverly’s controversial suggestion the Rwanda scheme is not the “be all and end all” in solving the Channel crisis, in comments that have damaged the faith of right-wingers.

The MP, who is fighting an affluent so-called “Blue Wall” seat in the south of England, said: “I think across the country, people care about immigration.

“I’m in a liberal marginal, and some may say they don’t care about immigration, they do care. It’s a big thing, it really is. But why do we keep going on about Rwanda being the panacea? Why not just sort the asylum system out?

“People would respect that more than spending all this time trying to fly three people to Rwanda. It’s just symbolic, tokenistic.”

It is this pragmatic approach that Mr Cleverly’s allies insist he is attempting to embody.

They are furious about briefing against him, including claims that as foreign secretary he blocked Suella Braverman’s attempts to use British Overseas Territories as a plan B for the Rwanda scheme, with one saying her suggestion of the Falkland Islands was “mad” due to its history.

A source close to the Home Secretary said: “It’s all her acolytes lining up to criticise him – even though in 14 months she never achieved anything anyway.”

Another ally added: “After 14 months of cleaning up after Suella’s messes, like striking the Albania returns deal, now we’ve got to actually do what she never could.”

Mr Cleverly has this week reportedly advocated a “Goldilocks” solution to the Rwanda problem – neither the “too hot” approach of overriding the ECHR or “too cold” option of simply declaring the east African nation “safe”, suggesting he is leaning towards excluding the UK Human Rights Act from applying to the scheme.

But others in Government warn that there will be a revolt if the new laws are not “full-fat” – another analogy doing the rounds – by including clauses that ignore the Strasbourg court that oversees the ECHR.

“The migration issue hasn’t peaked because whatever happens there is a group of MPs who are set on making trouble,” a minister said.

“It’s the Suella caucus who are just waiting to say that whatever comes out isn’t good enough.”

One Tory insider warns that the anger under the surface is so great that it may boil over into a leadership challenge.

““They don’t actually have a policy on small boats at the moment.

“They are trying to walk away from Rwanda and say there are lots of other measures, but Rwanda has become totemic.”

The insider added: “I now don’t think it’s impossible that there’s a confidence vote by February.”

But they caveated their prediction by suggesting Tories will not move against Mr Sunak as long as they think a snap election is being considered, with an early poll dominating conversations around Westminster since the Autumn Statement on 22 November.

“The threat of a spring election is good for them as it focuses minds but as soon as you move to a point where it’s clear that’s not going to happen, anything could happen.”

However, Ms Braverman does not appear to be waiting for a leadership election to happen anytime soon – she was spotted in Westminster this week having lunch with the Chartwell Speakers Bureau in an apparent indication she plans to join the likes of Boris Johnson on the after-dinner circuit, for now.

Mr Jenrick meanwhile appears to be stepping into her place as the darling of the right in the Cabinet, despite Downing Street’s official denials that he had gone rogue in a Commons appearance on Wednesday in which he said he wished he could have cracked down on net migration a year ago.

Privately, the No 10 source admits Immigration Minister’s comments were “definitely pushing” the boundaries of collective responsibility.

The insider meanwhile suggests Mr Jenrick, once seen as a moderate and close ally of Mr Sunak, has been radicalised by the Home Office.

“Everyone thought (his hardline rhetoric) was just for the media,” they said. “But it’s become increasingly clear over the last few months that he believes it.”

Another source however suggests: “There’s no opinion Jenrick won’t have if it means a promotion for Jenrick.”

Mr Sunak needs the backing of his Immigration Minister for the seemingly inevitable compromises he will have to make on Rwanda and net migration.

If he does, he may just stave off a full-blown civil war.