It’s the pound in the pocket that wins votes
As Parliament finishes its last full week before the Christmas recess, the high drama of immigration rebellion gives way to the same old story.
All year, Labour has been in a dominant position with polling consistently showing Sir Keir Starmer on the path to a landslide victory at the next election.
Nothing has shifted that: not policy announcements, angry resignations, Gaza rows or Commons showdowns.
Why is that? Simple – voters believe that Liz Truss caused an economic crisis which left inflation and interest rates higher than they would have been, and they have not yet forgiven the Conservative Party.
Rishi Sunak seems to know that. He tells friends that his election strategy is simple: he will knuckle down on the cost of living and hope that by polling day, rising wages and falling interest rates convince voters they should stick with the Tories rather than gamble on a Labour government.
There is one big problem with this gambit. As i reveals today, official experts and regulators believe much of the mortgage pain from higher rates is yet to hit.
Average salaries are indeed rising more quickly than inflation, so many workers will feel they are starting to get better off. But the 1.5 million mortgage borrowers (and their families) seeing their fixed rate deals expire in the next 12 months will certainly not feel the same way.
The Prime Minister privately frets that voters do not appreciate how much support the Government has provided – an upcoming £16 increase to energy bills has sparked outrage, but Mr Sunak would surely point out it pales in comparison to the £900 saved by the average household under the Treasury’s energy price guarantee.
At the ballot box, none of that matters. The election will come down, as always, to one question – do you feel richer now than four years ago?
