Lukashenko ‘wants Wagner as his private guard’ as mercenary boss plots future

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin marched his troops in a mutiny to Moscow but has ended up in Minsk, following an unexpected intervention by the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

While the precise terms of the deal remain unclear, analysts have suggested Wagner group members could serve as part of Mr Lukashenko’s own security if they are not absorbed into the Russian military at President Vladimir Putin’s behest.

The Kremlin said Mr Prigozhin was offered exile in Belarus on Saturday if he put an end to his armed uprising. This was corroborated by Mr Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Vladimir Putin, who claimed on Tuesday that the mercenary boss was offered “security guarantees” if he called off the mutiny.

Mr Lukashenko told the state-owned Belarusian news agency Belta that Mr Prigozhin immediately agreed to talk to him on the phone and was “totally euphoric” during the conversation.

The Belarusian leader said Mr Prigozhin has been offered space for a Wagner camp in the country, but it is not clear how many of his fighters will follow him there after he flew into the country on Tuesday.

Wagner’s future

Mr Lukashenko said he had invited Wagner fighters to stay in Belarus “at their own expense”, and offered Mr Prigozhin an abandoned unit to house his group in. He said the private army would not be able to recruit in Belarus.

Jason Blazakis, senior research fellow at US-based think-tank The Soufan Centre, said it was unlikely Wagner fighters would be able to access arms in Belarus, where only the military and police can carry weapons.

“I think it’s far more likely they will be subsumed in the Russian military, and those offered some kind of egress to Belarus would be subjected to extrajudicial punishment in the future,” he told i. “Belarus is a great place to confine them.”

Jonathan Eyal, at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), suggested Mr Lukashenko could use Wagner fighters to crush opposition to his regime in Belarus. “It could become a sort of personal guard of Lukashenko to be used to crack down on anything else, especially if the security services of Belarus become unreliable,” he said.

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya said the presence of Wagner fighters in the country “will create new threats for our sovereignty and the security of our neighbours”.

“I can’t predict the actions of the military, but I don’t think any Belarusians will feel safe with Wagner thugs roaming the streets,” she told i. “This is the result when the regime doesn’t protect our people, but only acts as a puppet of the Kremlin.”

Belarus ‘could be a pit stop’

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on Tuesday that it was dropping charges against Mr Prigozhin and others who took part in the short-lived rebellion.

While the supposed amnesty may come as a relief to Mr Prigozhin, he is unlikely to remain safe in Belarus, said Professor Blazakis.

“This is an area where Russia has a lot of autonomy,” he said. “Putin has a very long memory, and when he stops mentioning people by name that’s a bad sign for Priogozhin and his longevity. Russia has assassinated opponents for far less.

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“It may be that Belarus is just a pit stop. I think that would be the prudent move and I would be surprised if he stays unless he’s under house arrest. But we don’t know the specifics of his stay there.”

Professor Blazakis surmised that Mr Prigozhin could flee to an African nation where he has gained significant influence, suggesting Sudan, Mali or the Central African Republic. “Some of the advisers connected to the Central African Republic president are Wagner members, if Prigozhin were to relocate there he would have a great amount of influence. He could provide provide security services in exchange for access to materials such as gold and diamonds.”

Or, he could bide his time in Belarus to see how events unfold in Russia.

“Putin has displayed some weakness that may serve as inspiration for military opponents, and Prigozhin would be prudent to watch how things evolve and perhaps connect himself to an uprising challenging Putin’s power,” Professor Blazakis added.