Tory MPs turn on PM as more prepare to quit
With little more than a year before Rishi Sunak must call a general election, he was hoping that the return of Parliament after summer recess would be a chance to reset his premiership.
That ambition was scuppered in the dying days of August, with MPs still in their constituencies, when the Government was forced to admit that a brewing problem with unstable concrete in dozens of schools was far more serious than previously thought.
The return to Westminster was dominated by the row over thousands of children being forced into temporary classrooms or barred from school altogether – and whether Mr Sunak was directly at fault, through denying schools the funding they needed when he was chancellor.
Among Tory backbenchers, the mood was weary resignation. Many already believe they have little chance of winning the general election or even holding on to their own seats, and have become used to the litany of bad news. The RAAC concrete was only knocked off the headlines when a terror suspect slipped out of jail – another far-from-reassuring development.
Education Secretary Gillian Keegan pulled scrutiny away from her boss with a car-crash media round where she suggested she had done a “f**king good job because everyone else has sat on their arse and done nothing” in an interview with ITV’s Dan Hewitt – forcing her to go back on TV to apologise within hours.
“I don’t know why they didn’t take her off the field,” one frustrated Tory MP said. “There’s this idea that if you keep people out there long enough they’ll find their feet – no, she’s dying on the pitch. The morning round was already tetchy, then Dan questioned her and she shit the bed.”
Few backbenchers have erupted into open anger, and rumours that Mr Sunak could face no-confidence letters once he passes his first anniversary in office next month are laughed off by most. But there is little outward affection towards the party leader from his troops. A senior MP said: “I know there is a huge push by No 10 begging MPs to use the PM’s social media content. Apparently a majority of Tory MPs, including the Cabinet, don’t retweet or share his stuff or CCHQ stuff with him on.”
Conservative HQ insiders believe the number of MPs standing down at the next election – already nudging 50 – will only grow as more and more decide to jump before they are pushed. “We were prepared for a lot of resignations a long time ago,” a source said. “There are many people who would have gone already if not for the 2019 snap election, and decided to stay just one more term after that.”
They admitted this could swing the difference in a handful of marginal seats, with a new Tory candidate rather than an established MP seeking re-election: “You do lose a bit of incumbency advantage, so that’s a shame.”
Even those who want the Prime Minister to succeed suggest that they are running out of patience, given his failure to close the polling gap with Labour in recent months. Mr Sunak repeatedly points to the unpromising legacy he was left by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, who both had personal poll ratings worse than his, but one ex-minister said: “His team will keep saying that he inherited all these historical problems but that victim act is bollocks, it just doesn’t work.
“He was part of the government for years, he was the chancellor. There were all sorts of decisions he didn’t try to stop in the Cabinet. He could have tried to be the big champion of Brexit.”
Within weeks, Mr Sunak must make it through party conference – widely seen as a chance for potential future Conservative leaders to set out their stall. “No MPs are going to turn up to conference except for payroll and people trying to position themselves for a leadership bid,” a Tory said. “Suella, Kemi and Cleverly are all going to be making their pitches.”
For the first time in 15 years, Mr Johnson is no longer seen as a candidate for the leadership, given the failure of his comeback bid last year and the chaotic circumstances of his departure from Parliament. “He is dead,” a formerly staunch supporter told i. “I picked a side, my side lost. We need to be gracious losers.”
Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch are widely seen as the two frontrunners, battling to be the standard-bearer of the Tory right. But neither is universally admired by colleagues: the Home Secretary’s spiky rhetoric makes her divisive even among those who share her worldview, while the Business Secretary spends little time consulting fellow MPs or speaking at local associations.
A Conservative insider pointed out, however, that there could be space for a more centrist “one nation” leader, with a surprising proportion of prospective parliamentary candidates (PPCs) coming from the left of the party in a hint at the future ideological direction of its parliamentary representation.
“They’ve spent time over the past year getting more one nation types,” the source said. “One recent candidate was a Lib Dem election co-ordinator. I personally think the one nation group is more likely to grow than the right when I look at PPCs, albeit there will obviously still be some remaining on the right and it won’t be a tiny number.”
James Cleverly, the popular Foreign Secretary, is a potential champion for the centrists having prized loyalty to successive leaders above factional fights during his years on the front benches. “He is very popular and seen as a very likeable guy,” an MP said. “He’s not divisive at all.”
Others are wary of his ideological flexibility: one former minister said that “James just agrees with everyone” and a different backbencher warned he could be “another Boris” whose charisma hides a lack of attention to detail.
Increasing numbers of MPs are now mentioning the name of Brandon Lewis, the low-profile former party chairman and Northern Ireland Secretary, as a leadership candidate. He and his friend Nadhim Zahawi have taken leadership roles at the free-market Adam Smith Institute where they are building up a network of donors and a fresh policy platform.
“He is more sensible than most of the other front runners, he is well-liked, but he can also talk to the right,” one Tory insider said of Mr Lewis. Not everyone agrees – asked about the prospect, another source said: “This really is the endgame.”
Mr Sunak’s closest allies refuse to accept that the next election is a done deal. He ended the week by flying to India for the G20 summit having struck a deal with the EU to re-enter the Horizon programme for scientific co-operation. A No 10 official told i the Prime Minister saw the agreement as an example of steady but successful deal-making in the long-term interests of the UK, in contrast to his predecessors’ noisier but more chaotic efforts.
Still, MPs are girded for defeat. One backbencher from the “Red Wall” said: “I know I’m going to lose but I’m going to make it as tough as possible, as awkward as possible. Right now Labour think they’re going to just walk it.”
