Rishi Sunak not normal enough to pull off Major-style victory, says Neil Kinnock

In terms of political surprises, John Major’s 1992 General Election victory ranks among the biggest, with the Conservatives making a mockery of the opinion polls which had confidently predicted a Labour victory.

More than three decades later, Rishi Sunak’s Tories are trying to repeat the trick by ramping up fear of Sir Keir Starmer, painting him as a dangerous left-winger while planning pre-election tax cut giveaways and warning Labour would risk them being reversed.

Those involved in the 1992 campaign see similarities, with the Prime Minister a relatively new leader after a turbulent period for the Tories and Mr Starmer failing to capture the imagination of the public as Sir Tony Blair did in 1997 when Labour finally took power.

But Neil Kinnock, the Labour leader who lost in 1992, sees little hope for Mr Sunak, not least because he is not as popular as Sir John, who energised the Tories’ election campaign by speaking with a megaphone from a soapbox.

Lord Kinnock said his opponent’s move appeared to be “in frustration” at the Tories’ poor campaign, but the authenticity of it appealed to voters and echoed Mr Major’s days as a young activist going out on to the streets to meet and engage with voters.

“He did what he did when he was 19-20 years of age, on street corners in Brixton,” Lord Kinnock told i.

“And it wasn’t what he said, it was the fact that he was saying it from such an unprepossessing position that utterly convinced people who had residual doubt that he was a really authentic change from the Toryism of Thatcher.

“Now I have to say, if Rishi Sunak tried that trick, he’d fall off the orange box and the megaphone would fail.

“It isn’t that he’s a kind of Charlie Chaplin, though his trousers signify some relationship, but he cannot get normality right, and he never will, he probably didn’t even when he was a kid, he is just one of those people.”

Lord Kinnock added: “However hard he might try, he [Mr Sunak] has simply not got the wisdom or indeed the normality which is the crucial, crucial factor of John Major.”

Lord Hayward, the Tory election expert who identified the phenomenon of “shy Tories” that saw his party defy the polls in 1992, however suggests Mr Sunak does have a chance if he has a good campaign.

The peer, who lost his seat as a Tory MP in 1992, said: “It wasn’t until the election until voters took a liking to John Major with his soapbox, so there are strong parallels but there are inevitably weaknesses to the argument.

“The difficulty is, and it’s highlighted by Simon Clarke and Rwanda and everything else, is that I don’t recall elements of dissent as there have been in recent weeks.”

The peer nevertheless insisted Mr Sunak could replicate it, as like Sir John he was “not the great communicator that could appear on television in the way that Boris or sadly Donald Trump seem to be able to do”, but could still impress voters in a campaign.

Lord Hayward believes there is an “overemphasis of the lead” enjoyed by Labour in most polls as well as “the position of Reform” in taking votes away from the Tories.

“Do I think the polls are like ‘92, and the polls are wrong? Yes I do.”

Whatever the merits of Mr Sunak and Sir John, Labour may have an advantage this time around as Mr Starmer is less feared than Lord Kinnock was in 1992, polling guru Peter Kellner said.

Back then, Lord Kinnock “inspired a lot of people on the centre-left and left, but he was not a particularly attractive figure to the centre ground”, the YouGov founder said.

“My sense is that Neil Kinnock put a lot of floating voters off.

“Keir Starmer doesn’t have great ratings, he doesn’t excite people, but there’s very little sign that people are afeared, he doesn’t deter people.”

Away from the personalities, Mr Kellner said Labour made a fatal error in 1992 by producing a shadow budget which included plans to hike national insurance on the top 10 per cent of earners, a move that put aspirational voters off.

At the same time, inflation had halved over Sir John’s first year as prime minister – as it has for Mr Sunak – allowing the Tories to warn that voting Labour would put new tax cuts and falling inflation at risk in a “double whammy”.

“The Tories are trying to repeat the tax scare of ‘92, Labour’s tax double whammy was a very effective slogan,” Mr Kellner said.

“What we don’t know is if Labour will be more effective at fending it off.”

However, “the public finances were not an issue” in 1992 and “for most of the 80s” there had been “reasonably steady growth” meaning the “medium-term Tory record” was there had been growth, jobs and the public finances were strong.

“Arguing that Labour was an economic risk – the Tories could make that argument from a position of strength, which the present Government aren’t, that’s quite important.”

Mr Kellner predicts a 10 percentage point victory for Labour and a majority of about 50 seats, while acknowledging this could change come polling day.

“The idea that they will have a landslide is bollocks,” the former YouGov founder said.

But he stressed that in 1992 the Tories “were never far behind” Labour whereas now Mr Sunak needs a “very, very much bigger turnaround.”