2024 is the year that AI will show its potential to influence elections
Improvements to AI mean that deep fake imagery is becoming much harder to detect
December 31, 2023 12:38 pm
If 2023 was the year when generative artificial intelligence went mainstream, then 2024 will be the time when this technology demonstrates its potential to influence democratic society.
Elections in the US and the United Kingdom, not to mention a presidential contest in Ukraine, present political activists and bad actors with unprecedented opportunities for scaled production of AI-generated messaging, hyper-targeted at key voting segments.
It is nearly eight years since the abuse of online personal information by data analytics firm Cambridge Analytica aided Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and spotlighted the future risks of high-volume voter manipulation. Since then, the giant social platforms have done too little to address the threat of mass misinformation, being preoccupied with recent economic headwinds that have momentarily stalled their previously inexorable profit growth.
But the technology has not stood still. Improvements to AI mean that deep fake imagery, which has already been deployed in mainstream American politics, is becoming much harder to detect. The popularity of the ChatGPT chatbot and its ability to mimic human speech has highlighted the technology’s capability for creating deluges of political campaigning material.
Then there is the war in Ukraine. The delicate balance of that conflict and the possibility that its outcome will be decided by political change in the West means that the Kremlin misinformation machine has a greater motive for election interference than ever, particularly in the race for the White House.
Standing in the way of these threats to democracy is a news media that looks increasingly over-stretched and under-equipped.
A year ago it was possible to detect encouraging signs that the news industry was winning its existential struggle to achieve digital transition and a viable future.
But 2023 proved a hard slog in that generation-long journey. Publishers saw their web traffic and digital advertising slump, as Facebook and Google backed away from journalism, reducing referrals to news sites from social media and online search.
That shift has profound consequences. Facebook, a crucial battleground in elections since US President Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, will increasingly become a desert for professional news but not fakery. A recent study by American academics found that 23 per cent of image-based political posts on Facebook contained misinformation. The Meta Oversight Board, created in 2020 to rule on Facebook and Instagram content issues, cannot keep up.
News publishers will continue to use X (formerly Twitter), but under Elon Musk’s ownership, the hate-filled platform has become almost devoid of professional moderation. TikTok shows little interest in news and does not give traffic referrals to publishers, even if certain providers – notably Sky News and the Daily Mail – are working hard to connect with its youthful audience.
Facebook’s withdrawal from news has been devastating for the UK’s biggest publisher Reach, owner of the Mirror and Express titles, as well as a large portfolio of famous local UK news brands. In three rounds of cuts in 2023, it made 800 UK journalists redundant, while it attempted to shore up traffic numbers by finding new readers in America. After four years in charge, Reach’s chief executive Jim Mullen is under growing pressure to show that his free access digital strategy has merit.
But as more publishers are becoming dependent on subscription models, swathes of the public are being distanced from quality information. Four out of five publishers cite subscriptions as being key to their financial futures. Even Mail Online, which has built a vast audience for its free-to-access news site, has confirmed plans to put 15 premium stories a day behind a paywall.
The electorate is gradually being split between an informed minority, most of whom pay for news – albeit often via a news brand that confirms their political outlook – and the “un-newsed”, who take their chances with the mix of whatever rumour, propaganda (possibly AI-generated) and occasional public service content that happens to pop up on their smartphone.
Yet the news media still has a huge role to play in this election year. Even though its work is increasingly paywalled and serving only niche audiences, it can at least call out the fraud and the lies where it sees them, upholding the democratic process by forcing the political classes and regulatory authorities into action.
We need unbiased news outlets, like this one, to give society a common ground of shared facts, and we need investigative political journalists, such as the Sunday Times’s Gabriel Pogrund – who has exposed the seedier side of UK politics, including financial arrangements between the former BBC chairman, Richard Sharp, and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The BBC’s new 39-strong investigations unit can also make its mark.
In time, AI may provide tools to help these investigators. Until then, it provides a danger to our democracy that will make 2024 a challenging year.
