‘The worst scenario for a post-Putin Russia? A huge civil war and becoming a new North Korea’

Like most Kremlinologists, he won’t predict Putin’s future – nor what will happen when he dies, steps down or is forced from power; Russia is simply too unpredictable for that. But he thinks that it’s important to consider the different avenues that his country could feasibly go down, whether it’s a road to redemption or a road to hell.

“After Putin’s departure – no matter how that happens – according to the constitution the interim president would be the Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin,” Zygar tells i, starting with a reason to be (relatively) hopeful. 

“He is not considered to be a hardliner, he’s a technocrat. He’s not a liberal politician, but he’s not considered to be a warmonger, so gradually there could be a transition from authoritarian rule to normal democracy. 

“After several presidents, after all the prisoners are released and Alexei Navalny is allowed to run for election again, and after reforms of the judiciary and police, Russia can become a normal country – probably in several decades.” The transition would be slow, but at least it would be the right one for the Russian people and the world. 

On the other hand, says Zygar, “the worst-case scenario is that Putin’s successor is someone even more paranoid than he is, someone with KGB-style conspiracy theories.” The current president is “one of the worst”, but others rival him in their attitudes and methods.

Many experts name Russia’s Security Council chief, Nikolai Patrushev, as their favourite to replace Putin, given his experience with the old KGB and current FSB intelligence services. One former CIA agent recently told i that Patrushev might “replace Putin sooner rather than later” and that he may “escalate military actions” against Ukraine still further. 

However, given his age of 72 – two years older than Putin – Zygar believes he is “too old”. His son, the agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev, is the more likely candidate, according to the author. 

Another contender, Aleksey Dyumin, 50, could also be worrying. “He is Putin’s former bodyguard and now governor of the Tula region. We don’t know anything about his political views, but there was speculation that he was close to Prigozhin. He was frequently praised by Prigozhin and that’s not the best characteristic, it means that he is very radical.” 

Some of at the top of Russian politics are “less like thugs than others”, he believes, but Putin’s darkness has corrupted everyone around him. They include sensible business leaders who have been “trying to save the Russian economy from collapse” but have ended up bowing to the president’s demands. 

“Those people whose reputation was pretty good a decade ago, they now have to become accomplices of his [alleged] war crimes,” says Zygar. 

And if Putin does cling on, how does he hope to win his war? “Putin is waiting for the American presidential election, he’s sure that Donald Trump will come back and there’s going to be no more support for Ukraine.”