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Why Brexit is still not ‘done’

It was the moment Boris Johnson declared he had finally got Brexit done as he steered the UK out of the European Union hailing an “astonishing moment of hope”.

But as Wednesday’s fourth anniversary of “Brexit Day” on 31 January 2020 approaches, the optimistic picture the then prime minister painted seems a long way from being realised.

The country still faces a raft of loose ends and disruptions as it continues to struggle to come to terms with leaving the bloc, and economists are warning that the Brexit dividend could actually amount to a £125bn a year loss.

Meanwhile the bitter Northern Ireland border dispute that held up the UK’s exit for years so long remains unresolved, and experts are predicting the economic fall-out from Brexit will continue indefinitely.

Friday saw another blow to the UK’s efforts to set up post-Brexit trade deals as negotiations on a potential deal with Canada broke down after nearly two years due to a disagreement over cheese and beef.

And according to those on the frontline dealing with the changes brought about Brexit, as well as those due to come in, the UK could be about to witness a new wave of disruption.

Border chaos

Among the first major challenges looming into view is the Government’s plan to introduce post-Brexit customs checks on EU imports from April, which has sparked a fresh wave of warnings of major disruption that could overrun port infrastructure, cause major traffic queues and ultimately push up prices for consumers.

DOVER, UNITED KINGDOM - JULY 22: The Port of Dover traffic builds up due to Border controls checks being carry out in Dover, United Kingdom on July 22, 2022. Holidaymakers are seen trying to get their Ferries and are facing long delays All taxis and buses have been cancelled in Dover. (Photo by Stuart Brock/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Huge tailbacks at Dover predicted (Photo: Stuart Brock/Getty)

But the bigger problems on the horizon come in October when the new European Entry System is expected to be introduced by Brussels, prompting warnings of chaos for passengers, hauliers and ultimately consumers.

Under the new measures, non-EU passport holders will be required to provide retinal or facial scans as well as scanning their passports when entering the EU, which industry experts have said will cause bedlam in port crossings, such as Dover and Felixstowe.

There are concerns from the likes of Logistics UK – which represents the freight industry – that Kent could become “clogged up” as a result of the miles of tailbacks caused by new border checks due to come in, which could ultimately lead to European hauliers refusing to send their trucks to the UK for fear they will be trapped in huge traffic jams.

David Wells, chief executive of Logistics UK, told i: “To give you an example, a truck driver heading down to Dover – and bear in mind there are 10,000 trucks crossing every day at Dover – will usually park up, hand over their passport and then drive on. It’s a very slick operation.

“Under the changes, you’ll have to park up, get out of the lorry, walk to a cubicle where you will have to have your retina, fingerprint and passport scanned, walk back to your lorry, start your vehicle and drive off.”

Previous research has found that just two minutes of extra checks can lead to queues extending up to 30 miles from Dover and waits of nearly five hours.

As one industry source told i: “I wouldn’t buy a house in Kent or anywhere near the M20. And if you want to go on holiday in the EU, I suggest flying.”

Northern Ireland stand-off

The UK’s trading relationship with Europe is another area that remains unsettled as the Conservatives struggle to resolve the issue over the Northern Ireland border that have dogged Brexit for years and left the province without devolved government.

This week it was reported that prime minister Rishi Sunak has now offered to introduce a new requirement to check that all new British laws do not create new barriers in the Irish Sea.

But the move has infuriated Tory Brexiters who argue it would prevent the UK from making the most of its Brexit freedoms. Pro-Leave former Cabinet minister Therese Villiers is warning that it would be a “significant impediment in the way of divergence from EU laws”.

The standoff is just the latest political flashpoint in the ongoing Brexit drama. Experts warn there is also a huge economic cost.

Hundreds of billions of pounds lost

Economist Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, says that Brexit is costing the UK between £75bn and £125bn each year, the equivalent to 3 per cent to 5 per cent of GDP, and he expects the loss to be permanent.

“The overall consensus is that the referendum vote has made things worse,” he told i. “The sunlit uplands have not arrived at all.

“The overall net effect will be negative and primarily that’s because the costs we face from increased trade barriers with Europe.

“Because you have such a large economy that’s close to us and accounts for roughly half of all our trade, there isn’t scope to offset that with trade deals with other countries. Both because the countries aren’t interested in doing deals and the deals aren’t as ambitious as what we had with Europe.”

While a trade deal with India is still on the cards, it is unlikely any free trade agreement would be as deep as the arrangements the UK had with the EU.

Similarly, the US – where we also lack a trade deal – is the UK’s second biggest trading partner. But as Mr Sampson points out, even if there was a deal, the UK still does three times as much trade with the EU than the US.

How Boris Johnson’s ‘astonishing moment of hope’ panned out, four years later

The former prime minister marked “Brexit Day” by claiming it would allow the Government to tackle a whole raft of policy areas, from immigration to levelling up.

But how well has the Government succeeded in delivering the policies that Mr Johnson promised when he insisted he had “got Brexit done”?

Image ?No10 Crown Copyright . 30/01/2020. London, United Kingdom. Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the study at No10 Downing Street, filming his address to the Nation on leaving the EU on January 31st. Picture by Andrew Parsons / No10 Downing Street Image from https://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/
Boris Johnson in the study at No 10 Downing Street, filming his address to the Nation on leaving the EU (Photo: Andrew Parsons /No 10 Downing Street)

Controlling immigration
Brexit was supposed to mean control over UK borders. After leaving the EU, the Government introduced a points-based immigration system having done away with the free movement of EU citizens. But far from bringing net migration down, immigration into the UK has soared to record levels with more than a million people entering the country over the last two years.
Brexit score: 1/5

Creating freeports
The Government has made progress in this area, with freeports currently under development in areas the UK. But they take time to get up and running and even longer to deliver benefits, such as additional jobs and business growth.
Brexit score: 3/5

Liberating our fishing industry
Perhaps one of the most contentious areas in the whole Brexit debate. Ahead of the referendum, it was viewed as a central prize to “take back control” of UK fishing waters. But the vast majority of the fishing industry believe the long sought after freedoms were thrown away by Mr Johnson’s administration in his desperation to secure a deal. The issue of access and stocks will become an annual negotiation from 2026.
Brexit score: 1/5

Signing free trade deals
The long-promised free trade deal with the US never materialised and the Biden administration has shown little interest in starting talks. Even a victory for Donald Trump does not provide much optimism for Brexiteers hoping for a US deal given his dislike for free trade. A trade deal with India has slipped on to the back burner as elections in both India and the UK have shifted focus, and a deal with Canada is on the rocks. Trading arrangements with Australia and New Zealand have infuriated UK farmers, but the UK has joined the CPTPP trading pact.
Brexit score: 2/5

Levelling up
The flagship policy of the Johnson years was never likely to be delivered in four years, and few regions would claim they are being brought up to the standards of London. However, Brexit has undoubtedly focused politicians’ minds on regional inequality.
Brexit score: 1.5/5

Transforming our NHS
A famous pledge during the referendum campaign was to spend £350m a week on the NHS using money Brexiteers claimed was sent to Brussels. While funding has increased for the NHS, waiting lists are at a historic high with some estimates saying it will peak at 8m procedures.
Brexit score: 1/5

The biggest revival of our infrastructure since the Victorians
Mr Johnson was eager to spend vast sums on major infrastructure programmes to aid in his plan to level up the country. But major infrastructure has become even harder to deliver, with the centrepiece of the UK’s transport renewal HS2 being scrapped north of Birmingham.
Brexit score: 2/5

Red Wall voters switch from Brexit to immigration

Unlike four years ago, when the Conservatives stood on a pledge to “get Brexit done” the next election is unlikely to see Brexit feature in anywhere near as prominently. In the intervening years since leaving the EU, a small majority of voters has supported the idea of rejoining the bloc.

A Tory MP in a “Red Wall” seat told i that the focus was now on immigration rather than Brexit.

“I think in my area the attention that previously went on Brexit has gone into immigration instead. People voted Leave because they wanted to cut immigration and they now want to see that happen,” the MP said.

Neither Labour nor even the staunchly pro-Europe Liberal Democrats will be banging the drum to re-enter the Brexit battles of 2016 to 2019 that etched deep scars in the national psyche.

Instead, Labour has said that if elected it will look to tweak the UK’s relationship, bringing it into closer alignment in certain areas in a bid to reduce trade friction at the border.

‘Brexit will never be done’

The presence of a more emollient Labour government will not stop the need for ongoing negotiations with Brussels, however. According to Anand Menon, director of Brexit think tank UK In A Changing Europe, Brexit will never be “done” as Mr Johnson famously promised.

“There is no end to this,” he said. “There will always be changes to trading arrangements, people will want to tweak them. And even if we didn’t change them, we’re on the doorstep of a regulatory superpower in the EU.

“Whatever they do, whether we like it or not, impacts us and we will have to decide if we want to follow it or not. Ask people in Canada and they will be constantly thinking about what the US is doing.”

But Mr Menon said Brexit had reshaped the UK’s policy agenda. “Levelling up and regional equality has become far more of an issue now than before the referendum, similarly Northern Ireland has become more prevalent.

“But in terms of practical, positive changes there is no doubt it has been a disappointment.”

The Government was approached for comment.

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